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The demise of Angkor: Systemic vulnerability of urban infrastructure to climatic variations.
Science Advances ( IF 13.6 ) Pub Date : 2018-Oct-01 , DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau4029
Dan Penny 1 , Cameron Zachreson 1 , Roland Fletcher 1 , David Lau 1 , Joseph T. Lizier 1 , Nicholas Fischer 1 , Damian Evans 2 , Christophe Pottier 2 , Mikhail Prokopenko 1
Affiliation  

Complex infrastructural networks provide critical services to cities but can be vulnerable to external stresses, including climatic variability. This vulnerability has also challenged past urban settlements, but its role in cases of historic urban demise has not been precisely documented. We transform archeological data from the medieval Cambodian city of Angkor into a numerical model that allows us to quantify topological damage to critical urban infrastructure resulting from climatic variability. Our model reveals unstable behavior in which extensive and cascading damage to infrastructure occurs in response to flooding within Angkor's urban water management system. The likelihood and extent of the cascading failure abruptly grow with the magnitude of flooding relative to normal flows in the system. Our results support the hypothesis that systemic infrastructural vulnerability, coupled with abrupt climatic variation, contributed to the demise of the city. The factors behind Angkor's demise are analogous to challenges faced by modern urban communities struggling with complex critical infrastructure.

中文翻译:

吴哥的消亡:城市基础设施对气候变化的系统脆弱性。

复杂的基础设施网络可为城市提供关键服务,但可能易受外部压力(包括气候变化)的影响。这种脆弱性也挑战了过去的城市住区,但是其在历史性城市灭亡中的作用尚未得到准确记录。我们将来自中世纪柬埔寨城市吴哥的考古数据转换为数值模型,从而使我们能够量化由于气候变化而对关键城市基础设施造成的拓扑破坏。我们的模型揭示了不稳定的行为,在该行为中,对吴哥的城市水管理系统内的洪水造成了基础设施的广泛性和级联性破坏。相对于系统中正常流量,级联故障的可能性和程度会随着洪水的幅度而突然增加。我们的结果支持以下假设:系统性基础设施脆弱性,再加上突然的气候变化,促成了城市的灭亡。吴哥之死的背后因素类似于现代城市社区在复杂的关键基础设施方面苦苦挣扎的挑战。
更新日期:2018-10-18
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