当前位置: X-MOL 学术Biol. Conserv. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Demographic responses to climate variation depend on spatial- and life history-differentiation at multiple scales
Biological Conservation ( IF 5.9 ) Pub Date : 2018-12-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2018.10.005
Matthew Tye , Johan P. Dahlgren , Dag-Inge Øien , Asbjørn Moen , Nina Sletvold

Abstract Long-term demographic data are needed for detailed viability analyses of populations threatened by climate change, but the infeasibility of obtaining such data makes it urgent to assess whether demographic responses to climatic variation can be generalized across populations and species. We used 32 years of demographic data on four species of closely related orchids (genera Dactylorhiza and Gymnadenia), replicated in a coastal and an inland region in central Norway, to test how demographic responses to climate varied among geographical regions and species. We fit generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to study climate effects on vital rates and included GLMMs as components in matrix models to examine climate effects on population dynamics. We found that, overall, vital rates and population growth rates of the eight populations responded independently to variation in both temperature and rainfall. Only probability of flowering showed expected regional differentiation in response to climate, despite notable regional climatic differences. Other vital rate – climate relationships were structured by species or a combination of both region and species. The weak clustering of demographic responses to climate variation by species and region demonstrates that effects of climatic variation can strongly depend on variation in local habitat and life history, even among closely related populations occupying similar niches. This highlights the difficulty in transferring data from closely related and/or located populations for viability analyses and for models predicting range shifts, and a general need to account for among-population variation in demographic responses to develop successful conservation and management plans.

中文翻译:

人口对气候变化的反应取决于多个尺度的空间和生活史差异

摘要 对受气候变化威胁的种群进行详细的生存能力分析需要长期的人口统计数据,但获得此类数据的不可行性使得评估人口对气候变化的人口响应是否可以在种群和物种之间推广变得紧迫。我们使用了在挪威中部沿海和内陆地区复制的四种密切相关的兰花(Dactylorhiza 属和 Gymnadenia 属)的 32 年人口统计数据,以测试人口对气候的反应如何在地理区域和物种之间变化。我们拟合广义线性混合模型 (GLMM) 来研究气候对生命率的影响,并将 GLMM 作为矩阵模型的组成部分,以检查气候对人口动态的影响。我们发现,总的来说,八个种群的生命率和人口增长率独立地对温度和降雨量的变化做出反应。尽管存在显着的区域气候差异,但只有开花概率显示出对气候的预期区域差异。其他生命率——气候关系由物种或区域和物种的组合构成。物种和地区对气候变化的人口统计学反应的弱聚类表明,气候变化的影响可能强烈依赖于当地栖息地和生活史的变化,即使在占据相似生态位的密切相关的种群之间也是如此。这凸显了从密切相关和/或定位的种群传输数据以进行生存力分析和预测范围变化的模型的困难,
更新日期:2018-12-01
down
wechat
bug