Abstract This work analyzes the impacts of climate change in the revenues of hydropower plants. One important input for designing and evaluating investment opportunities in hydropower is the water inflows historical data. Unfortunately, the use of such information alone may not project well the future power generation due to the influence of climate change in the water inflow patterns. This paper introduces spatio-temporal information of the future climate into the operational planning of the Brazilian hydropower system. Global climate models from IPCC are considered along with downscaled regional climate models. Our results at the individual hydro plant level show the importance of taking into account climate change information when performing hydro generation planning studies.

中文翻译：

---

巴西气候变化威胁下的水电收入

摘要 这项工作分析了气候变化对水力发电厂收入的影响。设计和评估水电投资机会的一项重要输入是入水历史数据。不幸的是，由于气候变化对进水模式的影响，仅使用此类信息可能无法很好地预测未来的发电量。本文将未来气候的时空信息引入巴西水电系统的运行规划中。来自 IPCC 的全球气候模型与缩小比例的区域气候模型一起被考虑。我们在单个水电站层面的结果表明，在进行水力发电规划研究时考虑气候变化信息的重要性。