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Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits
Nature ( IF 64.8 ) Pub Date : 2018-10-01 , DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0594-0
Marco Springmann 1, 2 , Michael Clark 3 , Daniel Mason-D'Croz 4, 5 , Keith Wiebe 4 , Benjamin Leon Bodirsky 6 , Luis Lassaletta 7 , Wim de Vries 8 , Sonja J Vermeulen 9, 10 , Mario Herrero 5 , Kimberly M Carlson 11 , Malin Jonell 12 , Max Troell 12, 13 , Fabrice DeClerck 14, 15 , Line J Gordon 12 , Rami Zurayk 16 , Peter Scarborough 2 , Mike Rayner 2 , Brent Loken 12, 14 , Jess Fanzo 17, 18 , H Charles J Godfray 1, 19 , David Tilman 20, 21 , Johan Rockström 6, 12 , Walter Willett 22
Affiliation  

The food system is a major driver of climate change, changes in land use, depletion of freshwater resources, and pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through excessive nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Here we show that between 2010 and 2050, as a result of expected changes in population and income levels, the environmental effects of the food system could increase by 50–90% in the absence of technological changes and dedicated mitigation measures, reaching levels that are beyond the planetary boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity. We analyse several options for reducing the environmental effects of the food system, including dietary changes towards healthier, more plant-based diets, improvements in technologies and management, and reductions in food loss and waste. We find that no single measure is enough to keep these effects within all planetary boundaries simultaneously, and that a synergistic combination of measures will be needed to sufficiently mitigate the projected increase in environmental pressures.A global model finds that the environmental impacts of the food system could increase by 60–90% by 2050, and that dietary changes, improvements in technologies and management, and reductions in food loss and waste will all be needed to mitigate these impacts.

中文翻译:

将食品系统保持在环境限制范围内的选项

粮食系统是气候变化、土地利用变化、淡水资源枯竭以及因氮和磷输入过多而污染水生和陆地生态系统的主要驱动力。在这里,我们表明,在 2010 年到 2050 年之间,由于人口和收入水平的预期变化,如果没有技术变革和专门的缓解措施,粮食系统的环境影响可能会增加 50-90%,达到超越为人类定义安全操作空间的行星边界。我们分析了减少粮食系统对环境影响的几种选择,包括向更健康、更植物性饮食的饮食转变、技术和管理的改进以及减少粮食损失和浪费。
更新日期:2018-10-01
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