The spatial spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N2 during the 2015 outbreak in the U.S. state of Minnesota was analyzed through the estimation of a spatial transmission kernel, which quantifies the infection hazard an infectious premises poses to an uninfected premises some given distance away. Parameters were estimated using a maximum likelihood method for the entire outbreak as well as for two phases defined by the daily number of newly detected HPAI-positive premises. The results indicate both a strong dependence of the likelihood of transmission on distance and a significant distance-independent component of outbreak spread for the overall outbreak. The results further suggest that HPAI spread differed during the later phase of the outbreak. The estimated spatial transmission kernel was used to compare the Minnesota outbreak with previous HPAI outbreaks in the Netherlands and Italy to contextualize the Minnesota transmission kernel results and make additional inferences about HPAI transmission during the Minnesota outbreak. Lastly, the spatial transmission kernel was used to identify high risk areas for HPAI spread in Minnesota. Risk maps were also used to evaluate the potential impact of an early marketing strategy implemented by poultry producers in a county in Minnesota during the outbreak, with results providing evidence that the strategy was successful in reducing the potential for HPAI spread.

通过估算空间传播内核，分析了美国明尼苏达州2015年爆发的高致病性禽流感（HPAI）H5N2的空间扩散，该空间传播核可量化传染场所对一定距离内未感染场所造成的感染危害。使用最大似然法对整个疫情以及由每天新发现的HPAI阳性场所的日数定义的两个阶段估计参数。结果表明，传播可能性对距离的依赖性很强，而且整个疫情的暴发蔓延与传播的显着距离无关。结果进一步表明，高致病性禽流感的传播在疫情的后期有所不同。估计的空间传播核用于比较明尼苏达州爆发与荷兰和意大利以前的HPAI爆发，以将明尼苏达州传播内核的结果与背景联系起来，并对明尼苏达州爆发期间的HPAI传播进行其他推断。最后，空间传播核用于确定在明尼苏达州传播的高致病性禽流感的高风险地区。风险图还用于评估暴发期间明尼苏达州一个县的家禽生产商实施的早期营销策略的潜在影响，结果提供了该策略成功降低了HPAI传播潜力的证据。