Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO₂ emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11% of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.

最近在能源/经济/环境/工程（E4）模型中针对运输模式竞争的内生化做出了一些努力。TIMES-DKEMS是一种新颖的方法，为应用替代弹性将运输方式转移纳入TIMES（集成MARKAL-EFOM系统）模型铺平了道路。为四个运输需求总量定义了替代弹性，每个总量对应于不同的距离范围类别。在总体上，模态需求可以根据定义的替代弹性并根据其影子价格相对于参考案例的变化来调整其水平。总体上运输需求的总量得以保留，并实现了模式转换潜力，以确保现实的动力。₂排放。将模态份额与TIMES-DK的标准版本进行比较。结果表明，到2050年，11％的汽车出行需求将被更高效，成本更低的模式（如火车和长途汽车）取代。对替代弹性值的敏感性分析表明，较高的绝对值对应于较大的模态位移。最后，其他模型约束（例如，特定于模式的行驶模式）与替代机制相互作用，从而导致模态换位遏制。