The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise during the twenty-first century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20 and 90 per cent (for low and high sea-level rise scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, which will in turn result in the loss of biodiversity and highly valued ecosystem services1–3. These projections do not necessarily take into account all essential geomorphological4–7 and socio-economic system feedbacks8. Here we present an integrated global modelling approach that considers both the ability of coastal wetlands to build up vertically by sediment accretion, and the accommodation space, namely, the vertical and lateral space available for fine sediments to accumulate and be colonized by wetland vegetation. We use this approach to assess global-scale changes in coastal wetland area in response to global sea-level rise and anthropogenic coastal occupation during the twenty-first century. On the basis of our simulations, we find that, globally, rather than losses, wetland gains of up to 60 per cent of the current area are possible, if more than 37 per cent (our upper estimate for current accommodation space) of coastal wetlands have sufficient accommodation space, and sediment supply remains at present levels. In contrast to previous studies1–3, we project that until 2100, the loss of global coastal wetland area will range between 0 and 30 per cent, assuming no further accommodation space in addition to current levels. Our simulations suggest that the resilience of global wetlands is primarily driven by the availability of accommodation space, which is strongly influenced by the building of anthropogenic infrastructure in the coastal zone and such infrastructure is expected to change over the twenty-first century. Rather than being an inevitable consequence of global sea-level rise, our findings indicate that large-scale loss of coastal wetlands might be avoidable, if sufficient additional accommodation space can be created through careful nature-based adaptation solutions to coastal management.A global modelling approach shows that in response to rises in global sea level, gains of up to 60% in coastal wetland areas are possible, if appropriate coastal management solutions are developed to help support wetland resilience.

中文翻译：

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全球沿海湿地对海平面上升的未来响应

二十一世纪沿海湿地对海平面上升的反应仍然不确定。全球规模的预测表明，当今沿海湿地面积将有 20% 至 90%（分别适用于低海平面上升和高海平面上升的情况），这反过来又会导致生物多样性和高度重视的丧失生态系统服务1-3。这些预测不一定考虑到所有基本的地貌 4-7 和社会经济系统反馈 8。在这里，我们提出了一种综合的全球建模方法，该方法既考虑了沿海湿地通过沉积物堆积垂直建立的能力，又考虑了容纳空间，即细颗粒沉积物积累和被湿地植被定殖的垂直和横向空间。我们使用这种方法来评估沿海湿地面积在 21 世纪响应全球海平面上升和人为沿海占领的全球尺度变化。根据我们的模拟，我们发现，在全球范围内，如果沿海湿地的面积超过 37%（我们对当前可容纳空间的上限估计），那么在全球范围内，湿地面积可能会增加到当前面积的 60%，而不是损失有足够的居住空间，沉积物供应保持在目前的水平。与之前的研究 1-3 相比，我们预计到 2100 年，全球沿海湿地面积的损失将在 0% 到 30% 之间，假设除当前水平外没有更多的住宿空间。我们的模拟表明，全球湿地的恢复力主要由住宿空间的可用性驱动，受沿海地区人为基础设施建设的强烈影响，预计这些基础设施将在 21 世纪发生变化。我们的研究结果表明，如果可以通过谨慎的基于自然的沿海管理适应解决方案创造足够的额外住宿空间，那么我们的研究结果并不是全球海平面上升的必然结果，而是可以避免大规模丧失沿海湿地。方法表明，为应对全球海平面上升，如果制定适当的沿海管理解决方案来帮助支持湿地恢复力，沿海湿地地区的收益可能高达 60%。