We investigate the role of firm low-carbon resources in decarbonizing power generation in combination with variable renewable resources, battery energy storage, demand flexibility, and long-distance transmission. We evaluate nearly 1,000 cases covering varying CO₂ limits, technological uncertainties, and geographic differences in demand and renewable resource potential. Availability of firm low-carbon technologies, including nuclear, natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration, and bioenergy, reduces electricity costs by 10%–62% across fully decarbonized cases. Below 50 gCO₂/kWh, these resources lower costs in the vast majority of cases. Additionally, as emissions limits decrease, installed capacity of several resources changes non-monotonically. This underscores the need to evaluate near-term policy and investment decisions based on contributions to long-term decarbonization rather than interim goals. Installed capacity for all resources is also strongly affected by uncertain technology parameters. This emphasizes the importance of a broad research portfolio and flexible policy support that expands rather than constrains future options.

我们结合可变的可再生资源，电池能量存储，需求灵活性和长距离传输，研究了公司低碳资源在发电脱碳中的作用。我们评估了近1,000个案例，涉及不同的CO ₂限值，技术不确定性以及需求和可再生资源潜力的地域差异。在完全脱碳的情况下，可靠的低碳技术（包括核能，具有碳捕集与封存的天然气以及生物能源）的可用性可将电力成本降低10％至62％。低于50 gCO ₂/ kWh，这些资源在大多数情况下可降低成本。此外，随着排放限值的降低，几种资源的安装容量会非单调变化。这强调需要根据对长期脱碳的贡献而不是临时目标来评估近期的政策和投资决策。不确定的技术参数也会严重影响所有资源的安装容量。这强调了广泛的研究组合和灵活的政策支持的重要性，这种支持可以扩大而不是限制未来的选择。