Modelling is a good tool for understanding the complex interactions of the agricultural systems; however, few studies have used a combined method of text mining and system dynamics to analyse and simulate the agricultural system. We propose the topic modelling–system dynamics modelling (TM‐SDM) analytical framework to extract, synthesise, and dynamically simulate the factors of land management, disaster, pollution, and poverty in the system. Specifically, 1,598 English language publications were collected to analyse the main concerns and conceptual structure of the sustainable development in the case study area based on topic modelling. Historical data from 2000 to 2014 are used for simulation and prediction based on system dynamics modelling, exploring and comparing different policy scenarios. The results show that policies about education and training, sewage treatment, infrastructure construction, and soil erosion control would help poverty reduction significantly. Sewage treatment policy reduces the incidence of human disease and sewage discharge significantly. Education and training policy has the greatest impact on the improvement of poverty reduction and yield of crops, and the environmental protection scenario has the best performance on maintaining the cultivated land. The balanced development scenario benefits both the poverty reduction and environmental protection concurrently. Focussing on a systems approach to improve the sustainability of agriculture, this paper could have a positive impact on the development and implementation of sustainable agricultural systems. The TM‐SDM analysis and modelling framework that we proposed has a generic nature, which could be applied to the further research and decision‐making on sustainable agriculture and other fields involving complex systems.

中文翻译：

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三峡库区可持续农业的环境与贫困因子模拟。

建模是了解农业系统复杂相互作用的一个很好的工具。但是，很少有研究使用文本挖掘和系统动力学的组合方法来分析和模拟农业系统。我们提出主题建模-系统动力学建模（TM-SDM）分析框架，以提取，综合并动态模拟系统中土地管理，灾难，污染和贫困的因素。具体而言，收集了1,598种英语出版物，以基于主题建模的方法来分析案例研究领域中可持续发展的主要关注点和概念结构。基于系统动力学建模，探索和比较不同的政策方案，将2000年至2014年的历史数据用于仿真和预测。结果表明，有关教育和培训，污水处理，基础设施建设和水土流失控制的政策将大大有助于减少贫困。污水处理政策大大降低了人类疾病的发生率和污水排放量。教育和培训政策对减贫和农作物产量的改善影响最大，环境保护方案在维持耕地方面表现最佳。平衡的发展方案既有利于减少贫困，又有利于环境保护。着眼于提高农业可持续性的系统方法，本文可能对可持续农业系统的发展和实施产生积极影响。