Abstract Climate change can disrupt mutualisms by causing temporal or spatial mismatch between interacting species. However, the effects of climate change forecasts on biotic interactions remain poorly studied. In cactus species, pollination constitutes a fundamental process in the production of fruits and seeds. Thus, we aimed to analyse the impact of future climate change on the geographical distributions of 11 cactus species from the southern Central Andes and their spatial match with their pollinators. We used species distribution modelling to forecast the geographic range shifts of these cactus species and their pollinators under two future scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. We predicted geographic range contractions under future scenarios that reached almost 80% for some cactus species. Our results indicate that the geographical distributions of cacti would be constrained by the presence of the pollinator species on which they depend in the present; however, climate change would not cause spatial mismatch between cacti and their animal pollinators in the future. For most cactus species, we predicted an increase in the spatial match with their mutualists under future scenarios. This is the first study that estimates the geographic range of cacti using both abiotic and biotic factors. Given the importance that positive interactions have on the life cycle of many plant species, our approach could be used to better understand the potential effects of climate change, particularly on species that are of special interest for conservation actions.

中文翻译：

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气候变化会导致植物与其授粉媒介之间的空间错配吗？使用安第斯仙人掌物种进行的测试

摘要 气候变化会导致相互作用物种之间的时间或空间不匹配，从而破坏共生关系。然而，气候变化预测对生物相互作用的影响仍然缺乏研究。在仙人掌物种中，授粉是果实和种子生产的基本过程。因此，我们旨在分析未来气候变化对中安第斯山脉南部 11 种仙人掌物种地理分布的影响及其与传粉媒介的空间匹配。我们使用物种分布模型来预测 2050 年和 2070 年在两种未来情景（RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5）下这些仙人掌物种及其传粉者的地理范围变化。我们预测未来情景下的地理范围收缩达到近 80%一些仙人掌品种。我们的结果表明，仙人掌的地理分布将受到它们目前所依赖的传粉物种的存在的限制；然而，未来气候变化不会导致仙人掌与其动物传粉者之间的空间错配。对于大多数仙人掌物种，我们预测在未来情景下与它们的共生者的空间匹配会增加。这是第一项使用非生物和生物因素估计仙人掌地理范围的研究。鉴于积极相互作用对许多植物物种的生命周期的重要性，我们的方法可用于更好地了解气候变化的潜在影响，特别是对保护行动特别感兴趣的物种。