Over the last decades, authorities responsible on forest fire have encouraged research on fire triggering factors, recognizing this as a critical point to achieve a greater understanding of fire occurrence patterns and improve preventive measures. The key objectives of this study are to investigate and analyze spatial-temporal changes in the contribution of wildfire drivers in Spain, and provide deeper insights into the influence of fire features: cause, season and size. We explored several subsets of fire occurrence combining cause (negligence/accident and arson), season (summer-spring and winter-fall) and size (<1 Ha, 1–100 Ha and >100 Ha). The analysis is carried out fitting Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression models in two separate time periods (1988–1992, soon after Spain joined the European Union; and 2006–2010, after several decades of forest management). Our results suggest that human factors are losing performance with climate factors taking over, which may be ultimately related to the success in recent prevention policies. In addition, we found strong differences in the performance of occurrence models across subsets, thus models based on long-term historical fire records might led to misleading conclusions. Overall, fire management should move towards differential prevention measurements and recommendations due to the observed variability in drivers’ behavior over time and space, paying special attention to winter fires.

在过去的几十年中，负责森林火灾的主管部门鼓励研究引发火灾的因素，认为这是加深对火灾发生方式的了解和改进预防措施的关键点。这项研究的主要目标是调查和分析西班牙野火驾驶员贡献的时空变化，并对火种的影响（原因，季节和大小）提供更深入的见解。我们探讨了火灾发生的几个子集，包括原因（过失/事故和纵火），季节（夏春秋冬）和大小（<1 Ha，1–100 Ha和> 100 Ha）。在两个不同的时间段内（1988-1992年，西班牙加入欧盟后不久；以及2006-2010年，经过数十年的森林管理）。我们的结果表明，人为因素正在随着气候因素的接管而失去性能，这最终可能与最近的预防政策的成功有关。此外，我们发现各个子集的事件模型在性能上存在很大差异，因此基于长期历史火灾记录的模型可能会导致误导性结论。总体而言，由于观察到的驾驶员行为随时间和空间的变化，消防管理应朝着差异预防措施和建议迈进，并特别注意冬季火灾。我们发现不同子集的发生模型在性能上存在很大差异，因此基于长期历史火灾记录的模型可能会导致误导性结论。总体而言，由于观察到的驾驶员行为随时间和空间的变化，消防管理应朝着差异预防措施和建议迈进，并特别注意冬季火灾。我们发现不同子集的发生模型在性能上存在很大差异，因此基于长期历史火灾记录的模型可能会得出令人误解的结论。总体而言，由于观察到的驾驶员行为随时间和空间的变化，消防管理应朝着差异预防措施和建议迈进，并特别注意冬季火灾。