Many studies have overestimated species’ range shifts under climate change because they treat climate as the only determinant while ignoring biotic factors. To assess the response of giant pandas to climate change, we incorporated spatial effects in modeling bamboo distributions, which in turn was incorporated to represent giant panda–bamboo biotic interactions in predicting giant panda distribution. Our study revealed potential tolerance of giant pandas to climate change. We found significant residual spatial correlation in the bamboo models. The biotic interactions with bamboo understories and anthropogenic activities had large effects on panda distribution, which lowered the relative importance of climatic variables. Our results are fundamentally different from previous studies that used climate‐only and nonspatial approaches, which may have overestimated the effects of climate change on panda and lead to inappropriate conservation recommendations. We strongly advocate that giant panda conservation planning continues to focus on protecting bamboo forest and reducing anthropogenic interferences.

中文翻译：

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结合生物相互作用揭示了大熊猫的潜在气候耐受性

许多研究都高估了气候变化下物种的范围变化，因为他们将气候视为唯一的决定因素，却忽略了生物因素。为了评估大熊猫对气候变化的响应，我们在建模竹分布中纳入了空间效应，而在建模竹分布时又结合了空间效应，以代表预测大熊猫分布的大熊猫－竹生物相互作用。我们的研究揭示了大熊猫对气候变化的潜在耐受力。我们在竹模型中发现了显着的剩余空间相关性。竹林下的生物相互作用和人类活动对熊猫的分布影响很大，这降低了气候变量的相对重要性。我们的结果与以前使用纯气候和非空间方法的研究有根本的不同，这可能高估了气候变化对熊猫的影响，并导致提出了不适当的养护建议。我们强烈主张，大熊猫保护规划应继续侧重于保护竹林和减少人为干扰。