Flare management challenges are related to the flaring uncertainty during abnormal situations. In this work, a multi-objective optimization framework is upgraded with multi-period optimization and Monte Carlo simulation to incorporate the risk associated with uncertain flare events. An ethylene plant is used to present the developed framework. Using the ethylene process historical flaring data, Monte Carlo simulation generates probabilistic values for flaring events and event duration. Here, cogeneration unit (COGEN) is considered as the flare reduction alternative. The results of the formulations are presented as a set of Pareto fronts providing insights into the competing techno-economic and environmental objectives. Sensitivity analysis on the factors for the case suggests that some factors such as CO₂ tax savings are severely affected by minor variations in flaring profiles, whereas others such as the fixed and operating costs are less sensitive. Hence, using this approach, the decision maker gains techno-economic-environmental insights regarding the flare reduction alternative (COGEN).

火炬管理挑战与异常情况下的火炬不确定性有关。在这项工作中，通过多周期优化和蒙特卡洛模拟对多目标优化框架进行了升级，以合并与不确定的耀斑事件相关的风险。乙烯工厂用于展示开发的框架。使用乙烯工艺的历史燃烧数据，蒙特卡洛模拟生成燃烧事件和事件持续时间的概率值。在这里，热电联产机组（COGEN）被认为是减少火炬的替代方案。配方的结果以一组Pareto前沿的形式呈现，从而提供了对竞争的技术经济和环境目标的见识。对案件因素的敏感性分析表明，某些因素，例如CO ₂扩口轮廓的微小变化严重影响了节税，而固定成本和运营成本等其他因素则不太敏感。因此，使用这种方法，决策者可以获得关于减少耀斑的替代方案（COGEN）的技术，经济，环境方面的见识。