During the lifecycle of an oilfield project, well development is a critical phase due to intensive investments required for capital cost. Determining whether it is economical to develop an oilfield or not and finding the best plan for field development are the main concerns in this field of study. Drainage area development and production planning are crucial in a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) project of the oil sand industry. In this study, an optimization framework for planning the development of SAGD drainage areas under uncertainty is presented. The proposed framework includes the following two major elements. First, a mixed integer optimization model is developed to arrange the multiperiod development plan of the drainage areas with consideration of capital and steam allocation restrictions. Second, uncertainties in crude oil price and reservoir production are investigated based on a multistage stochastic programming model. The results demonstrate that the method can effectively generate an economically optimal development plan that maximizes the profit.

中文翻译：

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油藏产量和油价不确定性下蒸汽辅助重力排水油藏开发战略规划

在油田项目的生命周期中，由于资本成本需要大量投资，因此油井开发处于关键阶段。确定开发油田是否经济并找到最佳的油田开发计划是该研究领域的主要关注点。在油砂行业的蒸汽辅助重力排水（SAGD）项目中，流域的开发和生产计划至关重要。在这项研究中，提出了用于规划不确定性下的SAGD流域开发的优化框架。拟议的框架包括以下两个主要要素。首先，建立混合整数优化模型，以在考虑资金和蒸汽分配限制的情况下安排流域的多期开发计划。第二，基于多阶段随机规划模型，研究了原油价格和油藏生产的不确定性。结果表明，该方法可以有效地产生经济上最佳的发展计划，从而使利润最大化。