Coral reef ecosystems are seriously threatened by changing conditions in the ocean. Although many factors are implicated, climate change has emerged as a dominant and rapidly growing threat. Developing a long‐term strategic plan for the conservation of coral reefs is urgently needed yet is complicated by significant uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on coral reef ecosystems. We use Modern Portfolio Theory to identify coral reef locations globally that, in the absence of other impacts, are likely to have a heightened chance of surviving projected climate changes relative to other reefs. Long‐term planning that is robust to uncertainty in future conditions provides an objective and transparent framework for guiding conservation action and strategic investment. These locations constitute important opportunities for novel conservation investments to secure less vulnerable yet well‐connected coral reefs that may, in turn, help to repopulate degraded areas in the event that the climate has stabilized.

中文翻译：

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在快速气候变化下保护珊瑚礁的风险敏感计划

不断变化的海洋条件严重威胁着珊瑚礁生态系统。尽管牵涉到许多因素，但气候变化已成为主要的且迅速增长的威胁。迫切需要制定一项保护珊瑚礁的长期战略计划，但由于与气候变化对珊瑚礁生态系统的影响相关的重大不确定性而变得复杂。我们使用现代投资组合理论来确定全球范围内的珊瑚礁位置，在没有其他影响的情况下，相对于其他珊瑚礁而言，可能更有可能幸存预计的气候变化。对未来状况的不确定性具有鲁棒性的长期规划为指导保护行动和战略投资提供了客观透明的框架。