Abstract Large carnivores, such as wolves and lynx, are strictly protected by law in most European countries. However, they are still vulnerable due to habitat loss and illegal hunting. The Bohemian Forest Ecosystem lynx population is exemplary as a reintroduced carnivore population in Central Europe. The population expanded rapidly after the reintroduction (phase I) but then declined and stagnated at a low population size (phase II). There is some evidence that illegal hunting might have caused this development, but reliable data on the intensity of illegal hunting is lacking, and hence long-term consequences for the population cannot be assessed. We used a spatially-explicit individual-based dispersal and population model to inversely fit mortality probabilities to long-term monitoring data; the model integrated both chance observations and telemetry data, and discriminated between baseline mortality, road mortality and added unknown mortality. During phase I, the estimated added unknown mortality ranged between 3 and 4%, with an extinction rate

中文翻译：

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非法狩猎是中欧重新引入的猞猁种群源汇动态的主要驱动因素

摘要 狼、猞猁等大型食肉动物在欧洲大多数国家受到法律的严格保护。然而，由于栖息地丧失和非法狩猎，它们仍然很脆弱。波西米亚森林生态系统猞猁种群是中欧重新引入的食肉动物种群的典范。重新引入后种群迅速扩大（第一阶段），但随后下降并停滞在低种群规模（第二阶段）。有证据表明非法狩猎可能导致了这种发展，但缺乏关于非法狩猎强度的可靠数据，因此无法评估对人口的长期影响。我们使用空间明确的基于个体的扩散和人口模型将死亡率概率反向拟合到长期监测数据；该模型整合了偶然观察和遥测数据，并区分了基线死亡率、道路死亡率和增加的未知死亡率。在第一阶段，估计增加的未知死亡率在 3% 到 4% 之间，灭绝率