Future provision of ecosystem services (ES) has been increasingly analysed through the scenario approach to address uncertainties and to communicate them to stakeholders and decision-makers. Multiple uncertainty-related aspects of the scenario approach have been discussed in the literature, e.g. how uncertainty is accounted for in ES modelling processes. However, this contribution aims to address another uncertainty-related aspect of scenario analysis, exploring the relationship between the diversity of qualitative scenario narratives on the one hand and the diversity of their respective quantitative outcomes on the other. We build on a local-scale case study and present a semi-quantitative approach to compare scenario narratives and outcomes, based on participatory scenario planning and ES modelling. Our results show that different scenario narratives may lead to similar levels of modelled ES provision, and vice versa, that similar narratives may result in contrasting scenario outcomes. We use these findings to derive uncertainty-related insights, and discuss how these can help formulate landscape management decisions, resulting in desirable ES outcomes across a range of plausible futures. Finally, we discuss the need to apply both spatial and aspatial approaches to compare the convergence of scenario outcomes, and the implications for potential interpretation of the results by stakeholders and decision-makers.

通过情景方法越来越多地分析了未来生态系统服务的提供，以解决不确定性并将其传达给利益相关者和决策者。文献中已经讨论了场景方法中与不确定性相关的多个方面，例如，在ES建模过程中如何考虑不确定性。然而，这一贡献旨在解决情景分析的另一个与不确定性相关的方面，一方面探索定性情景叙事的多样性与另一方面各自定量结果的多样性之间的关系。我们基于局部案例研究，提出了一种半定量方法，用于基于参与式场景规划和ES建模来比较场景的叙述和结果。我们的结果表明，不同的场景叙述可能会导致模拟的ES条款达到相似的水平，反之亦然，相似的叙述可能会导致不同的场景结果。我们使用这些发现来得出与不确定性相关的见解，并讨论它们如何帮助制定景观管理决策，从而在一系列可能的未来中实现理想的ES结果。最后，我们讨论了应用空间方法和非空间方法来比较情景结果收敛性的必要性，以及利益相关者和决策者对结果进行潜在解释的含义。并讨论这些方法如何帮助制定景观管理决策，从而在一系列可能的未来中实现理想的ES成果。最后，我们讨论了应用空间方法和非空间方法来比较情景结果收敛性的必要性，以及利益相关者和决策者对结果进行潜在解释的含义。并讨论这些方法如何帮助制定景观管理决策，从而在一系列可能的未来中实现理想的ES成果。最后，我们讨论了应用空间方法和非空间方法来比较情景结果收敛性的必要性，以及利益相关者和决策者对结果进行潜在解释的含义。