The multiplier method is one of the most frequently used population size estimation (PSE) methods for key populations, yet estimates from this method are often inconsistent with each other, other PSE methods and local knowledge. We developed a novel Bayesian approach, the ‘Anchored Multiplier’, which synthesizes estimates from multipliers coupled to an a priori estimate to arrive at a single consensus estimate and credible range.

中文翻译：

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用贝叶斯方法合成隐藏人口规模的估计值：锚定乘数

乘数法是针对关键人群的最常用的人口规模估计（PSE）方法之一，但是从该方法得出的估计值彼此之间，其他PSE方法和本地知识之间通常是不一致的。我们开发了一种新颖的贝叶斯方法，即“锚定乘数”，该方法综合了乘数与先验估计的乘积，得出了单个共识估计和可信范围。