Low-carbon investments are necessary for driving the energy system transformation that is called for by both the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Improving understanding of the scale and nature of these investments under diverging technology and policy futures is therefore of great importance to decision makers. Here, using six global modelling frameworks, we show that the pronounced reallocation of the investment portfolio required to transform the energy system will not be initiated by the current suite of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions. Charting a course toward ‘well below 2 °C’ instead sees low-carbon investments overtaking fossil investments globally by around 2025 or before and growing thereafter. Pursuing the 1.5 °C target demands a marked upscaling in low-carbon capital beyond that of a 2 °C-consistent future. Actions consistent with an energy transformation would increase the costs of achieving the goals of energy access and food security, but reduce the costs of achieving air-quality goals.

低碳投资对于推动《巴黎协定》和《可持续发展目标》所要求的能源系统转型是必不可少的。因此，在技术和政策前景各不相同的情况下，加深对这些投资的规模和性质的认识对于决策者而言非常重要。在这里，使用六个全球建模框架，我们表明，转换能源系统所需的投资组合的显着重新分配将不会由当前国家/地区的国家自主贡献集来启动。相反，在制定“远低于2°C”的路线图时，全球低碳投资将在2025年左右或之前取代化石投资，此后又将增长。追求1。5°C的目标要求将低碳资本显着提升至超过2°C不变的未来。与能源转型相一致的行动将增加实现能源获取和粮食安全目标的成本，但会降低实现空气质量目标的成本。