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Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil [Social Sciences]
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America ( IF 11.1 ) Pub Date : 2018-06-12 , DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1718476115
Marcia C. Castro 1 , Qiuyi C. Han 2 , Lucas R. Carvalho 3 , Cesar G. Victora 4 , Giovanny V. A. França 5
Affiliation  

An increase in microcephaly, associated with an epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV) in Brazil, prompted the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2016. While knowledge on biological and epidemiological aspects of ZIKV has advanced, demographic impacts remain poorly understood. This study uses time-series analysis to assess the impact of ZIKV on births. Data on births, fetal deaths, and hospitalizations due to abortion complications for Brazilian states, from 2010 to 2016, were used. Forecasts for September 2015 to December 2016 showed that 119,095 fewer births than expected were observed, particularly after April 2016 (a reduction significant at 0.05), demonstrating a link between publicity associated with the ZIKV epidemic and the decline in births. No significant changes were observed in fetal death rates. Although no significant increases in hospitalizations were forecasted, after the ZIKV outbreak hospitalizations happened earlier in the gestational period in most states. We argue that postponement of pregnancy and an increase in abortions may have contributed to the decline in births. Also, it is likely that an increase in safe abortions happened, albeit selective by socioeconomic status. Thus, the ZIKV epidemic resulted in a generation of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) babies that reflect and exacerbate regional and social inequalities. Since ZIKV transmission has declined, it is unlikely that reductions in births will continue. However, the possibility of a new epidemic is real. There is a need to address gaps in reproductive health and rights, and to understand CZS risk to better inform conception decisions.



中文翻译:

寨卡病毒和先天性寨卡综合征对巴西活产婴儿数量的影响[社会科学]

小头畸形症的增加与巴西寨卡病毒(ZIKV)的流行有关,促使世界卫生组织于2016年2月宣布国际关注的突发公共卫生事件。尽管人们对ZIKV的生物学和流行病学方面的知识有所发展,但对人口产生了影响仍然知之甚少。这项研究使用时间序列分析来评估ZIKV对出生的影响。使用了2010年至2016年巴西各州出生,胎儿死亡和因流产并发症而住院的数据。2015年9月至2016年12月的预测表明,观察到的出生人数比预期少119,095例,尤其是在2016年4月之后(显着下降为0.05),这表明与ZIKV流行有关的宣传与出生率下降之间存在联系。胎儿死亡率无明显变化。尽管没有预测住院的显着增加,但是在大多数州,ZIKV暴发后住院发生在妊娠早期。我们认为,推迟妊娠和增加流产可能是导致出生率下降的原因。此外,安全堕胎的发生率可能会增加,尽管会受到社会经济状况的影响。因此,ZIKV流行导致一代先天性Zika综合征(CZS)婴儿,反映并加剧了地区和社会不平等现象。由于ZIKV传播有所下降,因此不可能继续减少出生。但是,新的流行病的可能性是真实的。有必要解决生殖健康和权利方面的差距,

更新日期:2018-06-13
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