Climate change is accompanied by shifts in species distributions, as portions of current ranges become less suitable. Maintaining or improving landscape connectivity to facilitate species movements is a primary approach to mitigate the effects of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is not clear how ongoing changes in land use and climate may affect the existing connectivity of landscapes. We evaluated shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity for the imperiled Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) in Wisconsin using species distribution modeling in combination with different future scenarios of both land use change and climate change for the 2050s. We found that climate change had significant effects on both habitat suitability and connectivity, however, there was little difference in the magnitude of effects among different economic scenarios. Under both our low- and high-CO₂ emissions scenarios, suitable habitat for the Blanding's turtle shifted northward. In the high-emissions scenario, almost no suitable habitat remained for Blanding's turtle in Wisconsin by the 2050s and there was up to a 100,000-fold increase in landscape resistance to turtle movement, suggesting the landscape essentially becomes impassable. Habitat loss and landscape resistance were exponentially greater in southern versus northern Wisconsin, indicating a strong trailing edge effect. Thus, populations at the southern edge of the range are likely to “fall behind” shifts in suitable habitat faster than northern populations. Given its limited dispersal capability, loss of suitable habitat may occur at a rate far faster than the Blanding's turtle can adjust to changing conditions via shifts in range.

气候变化伴随着物种分布的变化，因为当前范围的一部分变得越来越不适合。维持或改善景观连通性以促进物种移动是减轻气候变化对生物多样性影响的主要方法。但是，目前尚不清楚土地利用和气候的持续变化如何影响现有的景观连通性。我们评估了濒危的布兰丁海龟（Emydoidea blandingii）的栖息地适应性和连通性的变化）在威斯康星州使用物种分布模型，结合2050年代土地利用变化和气候变化的不同未来方案。我们发现，气候变化对栖息地的适宜性和连通性都有显着影响，但是，不同经济情景之间影响的大小差异不大。在我们的低和高CO _2下排放情景下，布兰丁海龟的合适栖息地向北移动。在高排放情景下，到2050年代，威斯康星州的布兰丁海龟几乎没有合适的栖息地，景观抵抗海龟移动的能力增加了100,000倍，这表明该景观基本上变得无法通行。威斯康星州南部的栖息地流失和景观抵抗力呈指数级增长，这表明威斯康星州具有很强的后缘效应。因此，该山脉南部边缘的种群可能比北部种群更快地“落后于”合适栖息地的变化。鉴于其分散能力有限，合适栖息地的丧失速度可能远远超过布兰丁海龟可以通过范围变化适应变化的条件的速度。