The potential impact of a technological accident can be assessed by risk estimation. Taking this into account, the latent or potential condition can be warned and mitigated. In this work we propose a methodology to estimate risk of technological hazards, focused on two components. The first one is the processing of meteorological databases to define the most probably and conservative scenario of study, and the second one, is the application of a local social vulnerability index to classify the population. In this case of study, the risk was estimated for a hypothetical release of liquefied ammonia in a meat-packing industry in the city of La Plata, Argentina. The method consists in integrating the simulated toxic threat zone with ALOHA software, and the layer of sociodemographic classification of the affected population. The results show the areas associated with higher risks of exposure to ammonia, which are worth being addressed for the prevention of disasters in the region. Advantageously, this systemic approach is methodologically flexible as it provides the possibility of being applied in various scenarios based on the available information of both, the exposed population and its meteorology. Furthermore, this methodology optimizes the processing of the input data and its calculation.

可以通过风险估算来评估技术事故的潜在影响。考虑到这一点，可以警告和缓解潜在或潜在的状况。在这项工作中，我们提出了一种评估技术危害风险的方法，重点放在两个方面。第一个是处理气象数据库以定义最可能和最保守的研究方案，第二个是使用本地社会脆弱性指数对人口进行分类。在本研究案例中，估计了阿根廷拉普拉塔市肉类包装业中假设释放液化氨的风险。该方法包括将模拟的毒性威胁区与ALOHA软件集成在一起，并对受影响人群进行社会人口统计学分类。结果表明，与氨接触风险较高的地区有关，应注意预防该地区的灾害。有利地，该系统方法在方法上具有灵活性，因为它提供了基于暴露人群及其气象学两者的可用信息而在各种情况下应用的可能性。此外，这种方法优化了输入数据的处理及其计算。