Background We projected cancer mortality statistics for 2018 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries, using the most recent available data. We focused on colorectal cancer. Materials and methods We obtained cancer death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, ovary, prostate, bladder, leukaemia, and total cancers from the World Health Organisation database and projected population data from Eurostat. We derived figures for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the EU in 1970-2012. We predicted death numbers by age group and age-standardized (world population) rates for 2018 through joinpoint regression models. Results EU total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline by 10.3% in men between 2012 and 2018, reaching a predicted rate of 128.9/100 000, and by 5.0% in women with a rate of 83.6. The predicted total number of cancer deaths is 1 382 000 when compared with 1 333 362 in 2012 (+3.6%). We confirmed a further fall in male lung cancer, but an unfavourable trend in females, with a rate of 14.7/100 000 for 2018 (13.9 in 2012, +5.8%) and 94 500 expected deaths, higher than the rate of 13.7 and 92 700 deaths from breast cancer. Colorectal cancer predicted rates are 15.8/100 000 men (-6.7%) and 9.2 in women (-7.5%); declines are expected in all age groups. Pancreatic cancer is stable in men, but in women it rose +2.8% since 2012. Ovarian, uterine and bladder cancer rates are predicted to decline further. In 2018 alone, about 392 300 cancer deaths were avoided compared with peak rates in the late 1980s. Conclusion We predicted continuing falls in mortality rates from major cancer sites in the EU and its major countries to 2018. Exceptions are pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women. Improved treatment and-above age 50 years-organized screening may account for recent favourable colorectal cancer trends.

中文翻译：

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欧洲2018年癌症死亡率预测，重点关注结直肠癌。

背景我们使用最新的可用数据预测了欧盟（EU）及其另外六个人口大国的2018年癌症死亡率统计数据。我们专注于结直肠癌。材料和方法我们从世界卫生组织的数据库中获得了胃癌，结肠直肠癌，胰腺癌，胰腺癌，肺癌，乳腺癌，子宫癌，卵巢癌，前列腺癌，膀胱癌，白血病和总癌症的癌症死亡证明数据，并从Eurostat获得了预计的人口数据。我们得出了1970-2012年法国，德国，意大利，波兰，西班牙，英国和欧盟的数据。我们通过联接点回归模型按年龄组和年龄标准化（世界人口）率预测了2018年的死亡人数。结果预计2012年至2018年间，欧盟男性癌症总死亡率将下降10.3％，达到128.9 / 10万的预测死亡率，下降5。女性为0％，比率为83.6。与2012年的1 333 362例相比，预计的癌症死亡总数为1 382 000例（+ 3.6％）。我们确认男性肺癌的发病率进一步下降，但女性发病率却呈不利趋势，2018年的发病率为14.7 / 10万（2012年为13.9，+ 5.8％），预期死亡人数为94500，高于13.7和92的发病率700人死于乳腺癌。大肠癌的预测发病率是男性为15.8 / 10万（-6.7％），女性为9.2（-7.5％）；预计所有年龄段的人都会下降。男性胰腺癌稳定，但自2012年以来女性胰腺癌的发病率上升了2.8％。预计卵巢癌，子宫癌和膀胱癌的发病率将进一步下降。与1980年代后期的最高发病率相比，仅2018年一年就避免了约392300例癌症死亡。结论我们预测，欧盟及其主要国家的主要癌症站点的死亡率将持续下降到2018年。妇女的胰腺癌和肺癌除外。改进的治疗方法和50岁以上的有组织筛查可能是近期有利于结直肠癌的趋势。