Response to Zika virus (ZIKV) invasion in Brazil lagged a year from its estimated February 2014 introduction, and was triggered by the occurrence of severe congenital malformations. Dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) invasions tend to show similar response lags. We analyzed geo-coded symptomatic case reports from the city of Merida, Mexico, with the goal of assessing the utility of historical DENV data to infer CHIKV and ZIKV introduction and propagation. About 42% of the 40,028 DENV cases reported during 2008–2015 clustered in 27% of the city, and these clustering areas were where the first CHIKV and ZIKV cases were reported in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Furthermore, the three viruses had significant agreement in their spatio-temporal distribution (Kendall W>0.63; p<0.01). Longitudinal DENV data generated patterns indicative of the resulting introduction and transmission patterns of CHIKV and ZIKV, leading to important insights for the surveillance and targeted control to emerging Aedes-borne viruses.

自2014年2月推出以来，巴西对寨卡病毒（ZIKV）入侵的反应就滞后了一年，这是由严重的先天畸形的发生引发的。登革热（DENV）和基孔肯雅热（CHIKV）入侵往往表现出相似的反应滞后。我们分析了来自墨西哥梅里达市的经过地理编码的有症状病例报告，目的是评估历史DENV数据在推断CHIKV和ZIKV引入和传播方面的实用性。在2008-2015年间报告的40,028例DENV病例中，约有42％聚集在该市的27％，而这些聚集区域分别是2015年和2016年报告的首例CHIKV和ZIKV病例。此外，这三种病毒在其时空分布上具有显着一致性（Kendall W> 0.63； p <0.01）。伊蚊传播的病毒。