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Risk of a false decision on conformity of an environmental compartment due to measurement uncertainty of concentrations of two or more pollutants
Chemosphere ( IF 8.8 ) Pub Date : 2018-03-12 , DOI: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2018.03.054
Francesca R. Pennecchi , Ilya Kuselman , Ricardo J.N.B. da Silva , D. Brynn Hibbert

Risks of false decisions in conformity assessment of an environmental compartment due to measurement uncertainty of concentrations of two or more pollutants are discussed. Even if the assessment of conformity for each pollutant in the compartment is successful, the total probability of a false decision concerning the compartment as a whole might still be significant. A model of the total probability of a false decision, formulated on the base of the law of total probability, is used, for example, for a study of test results of total suspended particulate matter (TSPM) concentration in ambient air near to three independent stone quarries located in Israel, as the sources of the air pollution. Total probabilities of underestimation of TSPM concentration (total risk of the inhabitants) and overestimation (total risk of the stone producers) are evaluated as a combination of the particular risks of air conformity assessment concerning TSPM concentration for each quarry. These probabilities characterize conformity of the TSPM concentration in the region of the quarries as a whole. Core code developed in R programming environment for the calculations is provided.



中文翻译:

由于两种或多种污染物浓度的测量不确定性,可能导致错误决定环境室的合格性

讨论了由于两种或多种污染物浓度的测量不确定性而导致的环境区划合格评定错误决策的风险。即使对隔室中每种污染物的符合性评估成功了,但有关隔室作为一个整体作出错误决定的总可能性仍然很大。例如,基于总概率定律建立的错误决策总概率模型用于研究环境空气中接近三个独立的总悬浮颗粒物(TSPM)浓度的测试结果以色列的采石场是空气污染的来源。将低估TSPM浓度的总概率(居民的总风险)和高估总概率(石材生产者的总风险),将其作为针对每个采石场的TSPM浓度的空气合格性评估的特定风险的总和。这些概率表征了整个采石场区域中TSPM浓度的一致性。提供了在R编程环境中开发的用于计算的核心代码。

更新日期:2018-03-13
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