OBJECTIVE Despite the importance of diabetes for global health, the future economic consequences of the disease remain opaque. We forecast the full global costs of diabetes in adults through the year 2030 and predict the economic consequences of diabetes if global targets under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and World Health Organization Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases 2013–2020 are met.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We modeled the absolute and gross domestic product (GDP)-relative economic burden of diabetes in individuals aged 20–79 years using epidemiological and demographic data, as well as recent GDP forecasts for 180 countries. We assumed three scenarios: prevalence and mortality 1) increased only with urbanization and population aging (baseline scenario), 2) increased in line with previous trends (past trends scenario), and 3) achieved global targets (target scenario).

RESULTS The absolute global economic burden will increase from U.S. $1.3 trillion (95% CI 1.3–1.4) in 2015 to $2.2 trillion (2.2–2.3) in the baseline, $2.5 trillion (2.4–2.6) in the past trends, and $2.1 trillion (2.1–2.2) in the target scenarios by 2030. This translates to an increase in costs as a share of global GDP from 1.8% (1.7–1.9) in 2015 to a maximum of 2.2% (2.1–2.2).

CONCLUSIONS The global costs of diabetes and its consequences are large and will substantially increase by 2030. Even if countries meet international targets, the global economic burden will not decrease. Policy makers need to take urgent action to prepare health and social security systems to mitigate the effects of diabetes.

目的尽管糖尿病对全球健康具有重要意义，但该疾病未来的经济后果仍然不明确。如果可持续发展目标（SDG）和世界卫生组织《 2013-2020年预防和控制非传染性疾病全球行动计划》下的全球目标，我们将预测到2030年成年人在糖尿病方面的全球总成本，并预测糖尿病的经济后果。被满足。

研究设计与方法我们使用流行病学和人口统计学数据以及最近180个国家的GDP预测，对20-79岁年龄段的糖尿病患者的绝对和国内生产总值（GDP）相对的经济负担进行了建模。我们假设了三种情况：患病率和死亡率1）仅随着城市化和人口老龄化而增加（基准线情景），2）与先前趋势一致（过去趋势线情景）增加，3）达到了全球目标（目标情景）。

结果全球绝对经济负担将从2015年的1.3万亿美元（95％CI 1.3-1.4）增加到基准线的2.2万亿美元（2.2-2.3），过去的趋势的2.5万亿美元（2.4-2.6）和2.1万亿美元（到2030年在目标情景中达到2.1-2.2）。这意味着成本占全球GDP的比例从2015年的1.8％（1.7-1.9）增加到最高2.2％（2.1-2.2）。

结论糖尿病的全球成本及其后果是巨大的，到2030年将大大增加。即使各国达到国际目标，全球经济负担也不会减少。政策制定者需要采取紧急行动，以准备健康和社会保障体系，以减轻糖尿病的影响。