We explore the plausible range of future deployment of photovoltaic generation capacity in the USA using a supply‐focused model based on supply‐chain growth constraints and a demand‐focused model based on minimizing the overall cost of the electricity system. Both approaches require assumptions based on previous experience and anticipated trends. For each of the models, we assign plausible ranges for the key assumptions and then compare the resulting PV deployment over time. Each model was applied to 2 different future scenarios: one in which PV market penetration is ultimately constrained by the uncontrolled variability of solar power and one in which low‐cost energy storage or some equivalent measure largely alleviates this constraint. The supply‐focused and demand‐focused models are in substantial agreement, not just in the long term, where deployment is largely determined by the assumed market penetration constraints, but also in the interim years. For the future scenario without low‐cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the 2 models give an average plausible range of PV generation capacity in the USA of 150 to 530 GW_dc in 2030 and 260 to 810 GW_dc in 2040. With low‐cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the corresponding ranges are 160 to 630 GW_dc in 2030 and 280 to 1200 GW_dc in 2040. The latter range is enough to supply 10% to 40% of US electricity demand in 2040, based on current demand growth.

中文翻译：

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比较美国未来光伏发电的供需模型

我们使用基于供应链增长约束的以供应为重点的模型和基于最小化电力系统总体成本的以需求为中心的模型，探索了美国未来光伏发电能力的合理部署范围。两种方法都需要根据以前的经验和预期的趋势进行假设。对于每个模型，我们为关键假设分配合理的范围，然后比较随时间变化的结果PV部署。每种模型都适用于2种不同的未来方案：一种是光伏市场的渗透最终受到不受控制的太阳能可变性的约束，另一种是低成本的能源存储或某种等效措施大大缓解了这一限制。以供应为中心和以需求为中心的模型在很大程度上达成了一致，而不仅仅是从长期来看，部署在很大程度上取决于假定的市场渗透率限制，而且在过渡时期也是如此。对于没有低成本储能或等效措施的未来情况，这两种模型给出的美国光伏发电量的平均合理范围为150到530 GW_DC在2030和260至810 GW_直流在2040年具有低成本的能量存储或等效措施，相应的范围是160至630 GW _DC在2030和280至1200 GW _DC在2040后者范围是足够供应10根据目前的需求增长，到2040年占美国电力需求的40％到40％。