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Anticipating climate futures in a 1.5 °C era: the link between foresight and governance
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability ( IF 7.2 ) Pub Date : 2018-02-21 , DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2018.01.004
Joost Vervoort , Aarti Gupta

The Paris Agreement's aspirational 1.5 degree temperature target has given further impetus to efforts to imagine (and seek to govern) transformative and uncertain climate futures. This brings to the fore multiple challenges in the search for anticipatory governance and the role herein for climate foresight. Foresight entails processes to envision challenging futures and question limiting assumptions about what futures are possible, but these processes also impact upon present-day politics. While foresight-related activities are proliferating in sustainability research and planning, critical social science scrutiny of such processes remains minimal. Two key gaps in understanding are: (a) the link between foresight, planning and policy change; and (b) the very prospects of relying on foresight in the present to steer largely unknowable futures. In addressing these gaps, we review the field of climate foresight research here, situating it within a broader interdisciplinary body of literature relating to anticipation and anticipatory governance. In doing so, we identify a conceptual lens through which to analyze the political implications of foresight processes, and apply it to the case of two ongoing foresight initiatives. We conclude with noting the urgent need for further research on the role of foresight within anticipatory climate governance in a post-Paris era.



中文翻译:

预测1.5°C时代的气候未来:远见与治理之间的联系

《巴黎协定》提出的理想的1.5度温度目标进一步推动了人们对设想(并试图治理)变革性和不确定性气候未来的努力。这突显了在寻求预期治理以及本文在气候预见中的作用方面所面临的多重挑战。有远见的人需要制定流程来预见具有挑战性的未来,并提出关于可能的未来的局限性假设,但这些流程也会影响当今的政治。尽管与远见有关的活动在可持续性研究和规划中正在激增,但对此类过程的批判性社会科学审查仍然很少。理解上的两个主要差距是:(a)预见,计划和政策变化之间的联系;(b)依靠远见卓识的前景在目前的情况下,可以操纵大部分不为人知的未来。为了解决这些差距,我们在这里回顾了气候预见研究领域,并将其置于与预期和预期治理有关的更广泛的跨学科文献中。在此过程中,我们确定了一个概念镜头,通过该镜头可以分析预见过程的政治含义,并将其应用于两个正在进行的预见倡议的案例中。最后,我们注意到迫切需要对后巴黎时代的前瞻性在预期性气候治理中的作用进行进一步研究。

更新日期:2018-02-21
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