Abstract On-going climate change has major impacts on ecological processes and patterns. Understanding the impacts of climate on the geographical patterns of survival can provide insights to how population dynamics respond to climate change and provide important information for the development of appropriate conservation strategies at regional scales. It is challenging to understand the impacts of climate on survival, however, due to the fact that the non-linear relationship between survival and climate can be modified by density-dependent processes. In this study we extended the Brownie model to partition hunting and non-hunting mortalities and linked non-hunting survival to covariates. We applied this model to four decades (1972–2014) of waterfowl band-recovery, breeding population survey, and precipitation and temperature data covering multiple ecological regions to examine the non-linear, interactive effects of population density and climate on waterfowl non-hunting survival at a regional scale. Our results showed that the non-linear effect of temperature on waterfowl non-hunting survival was modified by breeding population density. The concave relationship between non-hunting survival and temperature suggested that the effects of warming on waterfowl survival might be multifaceted. Furthermore, the relationship between non-hunting survival and temperature was stronger when population density was higher, suggesting that high-density populations may be less buffered against warming than low-density populations. Our study revealed distinct relationships between waterfowl non-hunting survival and climate across and within ecological regions, highlighting the importance of considering different conservation strategies according to region-specific population and climate conditions. Our findings and associated novel modelling approach have wide implications in conservation practice.

中文翻译：

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人口密度和气候的非线性交互影响驱动水禽生存的地理模式

摘要 持续的气候变化对生态过程和模式有重大影响。了解气候对生存地理模式的影响可以提供有关人口动态如何响应气候变化的见解，并为在区域范围内制定适当的保护战略提供重要信息。然而，了解气候对生存的影响具有挑战性，因为生存与气候之间的非线性关系可以通过依赖密度的过程来改变。在这项研究中，我们将布朗尼模型扩展到划分狩猎和非狩猎死亡率，并将非狩猎生存率与协变量联系起来。我们将此模型应用于四个十年（1972-2014 年）的水禽带恢复、繁殖种群调查、以及覆盖多个生态区域的降水和温度数据，以检查人口密度和气候在区域尺度上对水禽非狩猎生存的非线性交互影响。我们的结果表明，温度对水禽非狩猎生存的非线性影响会因繁殖种群密度而改变。非狩猎生存与温度之间的凹关系表明变暖对水禽生存的影响可能是多方面的。此外，当人口密度较高时，非狩猎生存与温度之间的关系更强，这表明高密度人口可能比低密度人口对变暖的缓冲能力更弱。我们的研究揭示了生态区域内和生态区域内水禽非狩猎生存与气候之间的明显关系，突出了根据区域特定人口和气候条件考虑不同保护策略的重要性。我们的发现和相关的新建模方法对保护实践具有广泛的影响。