A biophysical model of the key aspects of melatonin synthesis and excretion has been developed, which is able to predict experimental dynamics of melatonin in plasma and saliva, and of its urinary metabolite 6‐sulfatoxymelatonin (aMT6s). This new model is coupled to an established model of arousal dynamics, which predicts sleep and circadian dynamics based on light exposure and times of wakefulness. The combined model thus predicts melatonin levels over the sleep‐wake/dark‐light cycle and enables prediction of melatonin‐based circadian phase markers, such as dim light melatonin onset (DLMO) and aMT6s acrophase under conditions of normal sleep and circadian misalignment. The model is calibrated and tested against group average data from 10 published experimental studies and is found to reproduce quantitatively the key dynamics of melatonin and aMT6s, including the timing of release and amplitude, as well as response to controlled lighting and shift work.

中文翻译：

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褪黑激素，6-磺基氧基褪黑素和睡眠动力学的统一模型

已经建立了褪黑激素合成和排泄关键方面的生物物理模型，该模型能够预测血浆和唾液中褪黑激素及其尿中代谢产物6-磺基氧基褪黑素（aMT6s）的实验动态。该新模型与已建立的觉醒动力学模型耦合，该模型根据光照和清醒时间来预测睡眠和昼夜节律动力学。因此，该组合模型可预测整个睡眠-觉醒/暗光周期中的褪黑激素水平，并能够预测正常睡眠和昼夜节律失调情况下基于褪黑激素的昼夜节律标志物，例如暗淡褪黑激素发作（DLMO）和aMT6s顶相。