Abstract Evaluation of failure probability is one of the core contents of quantitative risk assessment. An assessment model of gas transmission pipelines failure probability based on historical failure-related data and modification factors is established, which combines a quantitative part to integrate available historical failure-related data, with a qualitative analysis to compensate for a potential lack of precise crisp statistical data. The main idea is to use the modification factors to modify the baseline failure frequency. The baseline failure frequency is estimated from the statistical historical failure-related data. The modification factors are calculated from the segment attributes of the target pipeline using algorithms developed from the analysis of statistical data and analytical models supplemented by pipeline evaluation criteria and expert judgment. The constructed model is applied to a long-distance gas transmission pipeline so that the effectiveness of the proposed model could be demonstrated. The prospect is for more efficient risk management by acting both on historical failure-related data and modification factors of gas transmission pipeline systems.

中文翻译：

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基于历史故障相关数据和修正因素的输气管道故障概率评估

摘要 失效概率评估是定量风险评估的核心内容之一。建立了基于历史故障相关数据和修正因素的输气管道故障概率评估模型，该模型将定量部分整合现有的历史故障相关数据，并通过定性分析来弥补可能缺乏精确清晰的统计数据。数据。主要思想是利用修正因子修正基线失效频率。基线故障频率是从统计的历史故障相关数据中估计出来的。修改因子是根据目标管道的段属性，使用由统计数据分析和分析模型开发的算法，辅以管道评估标准和专家判断来计算的。将构建的模型应用于长距离输气管道，验证了该模型的有效性。通过对历史故障相关数据和天然气输送管道系统的修改因素采取行动，有望实现更有效的风险管理。