Carbon capture, and storage (CCS) infrastructure will require industry—such as fossil-fuel power, ethanol production, and oil and gas extraction—to make massive investment in infrastructure. The cost of getting these investments wrong will be substantial and will impact the success of CCS technology. Multiple factors can and will impact the success of commercial-scale CCS, including significant uncertainties regarding capture, transport, and injection-storage decisions. Uncertainties throughout the CCS supply chain include policy, technology, engineering performance, economics, and market forces. In particular, large uncertainties exist for the injection and storage of CO₂. Even taking into account upfront investment in site characterization, the final performance of the storage phase is largely unknown until commercial-scale injection has started. We explore and quantify the impact of getting CCS infrastructure decisions wrong based on uncertain injection rates and uncertain CO₂ storage capacities using a case study managing CO₂ emissions from the Canadian oil sands industry in Alberta. We use SimCCS, a widely used CCS infrastructure design framework, to develop multiple CCS infrastructure scenarios. Each scenario consists of a CCS infrastructure network that connects CO₂ sources (oil sands extraction and processing) with CO₂ storage reservoirs (acid gas storage reservoirs) using a dedicated CO₂ pipeline network. Each scenario is analyzed under a range of uncertain storage estimates and infrastructure performance is assessed and quantified in terms of cost to build additional infrastructure to store all CO₂. We also include the role of stranded CO₂, CO₂ that a source was expecting to but cannot capture due substandard performance in the transport and storage infrastructure. Results show that the cost of getting the original infrastructure design wrong are significant and that comprehensive planning will be required to ensure that CCS becomes a successful climate mitigation technology. In particular, we show that the concept of stranded CO₂ can transform a seemingly high-performing infrastructure design into the worst case scenario.

碳捕集与封存（CCS）基础设施将需要工业（例如化石燃料发电，乙醇生产以及石油和天然气开采）来对基础设施进行大量投资。弄错这些投资的成本将是巨大的，并将影响CCS技术的成功。多种因素会并且将影响商业规模CCS的成功，包括有关捕获，运输和注入-储存决策的重大不确定性。整个CCS供应链的不确定性包括政策，技术，工程性能，经济和市场力量。特别地，对于CO ₂的注入和储存存在很大的不确定性。。即使考虑到在现场表征方面的前期投资，在开始进行商业规模的注入之前，存储阶段的最终性能在很大程度上仍是未知的。我们通过管理加拿大艾伯塔省油砂行业的CO ₂排放的案例研究，基于不确定的注入速率和不确定的CO ₂储存能力，探索并量化了错误制定CCS基础设施决策的影响。我们使用SimCCS（一种广泛使用的CCS基础结构设计框架）来开发多个CCS基础结构方案。每个方案都包含一个CCS基础架构网络，该网络将CO ₂来源（油砂提取和加工）与CO _{2连接起来}储罐（酸性气体储罐）使用专用的CO ₂管道网络。在各种不确定的存储估算范围内对每种情况进行分析，并对基础设施性能进行评估和量化，以建立额外的基础设施来存储所有CO ₂的成本。我们还包括了源头期望的但无法捕获运输和存储基础设施中应有的不合标准性能的滞留CO ₂，CO ₂的作用。结果表明，使原始基础设施设计错误的成本是巨大的，并且需要进行全面规划以确保CCS成为成功的缓解气候变化技术。特别是，我们证明了绞合CO ₂的概念 可以将看似高性能的基础架构设计转变为最坏的情况。