An improved understanding of failure risks for water supplies in rural sub-Saharan Africa will be critical to achieving the global goal of safe water for all by 2030. In the absence of longitudinal biophysical and operational data, investigations into water point failure risk factors have to date been limited to cross-sectional research designs. This retrospective cohort study applies survival analysis to identify factors that predict failure risks for handpumps installed on boreholes along the south coast of Kenya from the 1980s. The analysis is based on a unique dataset linking attributes of > 300 water points at the time of installation with their operational lifespan over the following decades. Cox proportional hazards and accelerated failure time models suggest infrastructure failure risks are higher and lifespans are shorter when water supplied is more saline, static water level is deeper, and groundwater is pumped from an unconsolidated sand aquifer. Water point failure risks also appear to grow as distance to spare part suppliers increases. To bolster the sustainability of rural water services and ensure no community is left behind, post-construction support mechanisms will need to mitigate heterogeneous environmental and geographical challenges. Further studies are needed to better understand the causal pathways that underlie these risk factors in order to inform policies and practices that ensure water services are sustained even where unfavourable conditions prevail.

更好地了解撒哈拉以南非洲农村地区的供水故障风险对于实现到2030年实现人人享有安全水的全球目标至关重要。在缺乏纵向生物物理和运行数据的情况下，必须对水位故障风险因素进行调查迄今为止，仅限于横断面研究设计。这项回顾性队列研究运用生存分析来确定预测1980年代以来安装在肯尼亚南海岸沿线钻孔中的手泵故障风险的因素。该分析基于一个独特的数据集，该数据集将安装时的300多个水点的属性与其在未来几十年的使用寿命进行了关联。考克斯比例风险和加速的故障时间模型表明，当供水中含更多的盐水，静态水位更深，地下水来自未固结的含水层时，基础设施的故障风险会更高，使用寿命会更短。随着与备件供应商之间距离的增加，水位故障风险似乎也在增加。为了增强农村供水服务的可持续性并确保不遗留任何社区，建设后的支持机制将需要减轻各种环境和地理挑战。需要进一步研究以更好地理解这些风险因素的根本原因，以便为确保即使在不利条件下仍能维持供水服务的政策和实践提供信息。地下水是从未固结的含水层中抽出的。随着与备件供应商之间距离的增加，水位故障风险似乎也在增加。为了增强农村供水服务的可持续性并确保不遗留任何社区，建设后的支持机制将需要减轻各种环境和地理挑战。需要进一步研究以更好地理解这些风险因素的根本原因，以便为确保即使在不利条件下仍能维持供水服务的政策和实践提供信息。地下水是从未固结的含水层中抽出的。随着与备件供应商之间距离的增加，水位故障风险似乎也在增加。为了增强农村供水服务的可持续性并确保不遗留任何社区，建设后的支持机制将需要减轻各种环境和地理挑战。需要进一步研究以更好地理解这些风险因素的根本原因，以便为确保即使在不利条件下仍能维持供水服务的政策和实践提供信息。建设后的支持机制将需要减轻各种环境和地理挑战。需要进一步研究以更好地理解这些风险因素的根本原因，以便为确保即使在不利条件下仍能维持供水服务的政策和实践提供信息。建设后的支持机制将需要减轻各种环境和地理挑战。需要进一步研究以更好地理解这些风险因素的根本原因，以便为确保即使在不利条件下仍能维持供水服务的政策和实践提供信息。