Feedbacks between the global dust cycle and the climate system might have amplified past climate changes. Yet, it remains unclear what role the dust-climate feedback will play in future anthropogenic climate change. Here, we estimate the direct dust-climate feedback, arising from changes in the dust direct radiative effect (DRE), using a simple theoretical framework that combines constraints on the dust DRE with a series of climate model results. We find that the direct dust-climate feedback is likely in the range of -0.04 to +0.02 Wm ^-2 K^-1, such that it could account for a substantial fraction of the total aerosol feedbacks in the climate system. On a regional scale, the direct dust-climate feedback is enhanced by approximately an order of magnitude close to major source regions. This suggests that it could play an important role in shaping the future climates of Northern Africa, the Sahel, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and Central Asia.

中文翻译：

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直接的尘埃气候反馈对全球和区域的重要性。

全球尘埃循环与气候系统之间的反馈可能加剧了过去的气候变化。然而，目前尚不清楚尘埃气候反馈将在未来的人为气候变化中扮演什么角色。在这里，我们使用一个简单的理论框架（将对尘埃DRE的约束与一系列气候模型结果结合起来）的简单理论框架，估算了由尘埃直接辐射效应（DRE）变化引起的直接尘埃气候反馈。我们发现直接的尘埃气候反馈可能在-0.04至+0.02 Wm ^-2  K ^-1的范围内 ，因此它可以占气候系统中总气溶胶反馈的很大一部分。在区域范围内，接近主要污染源区域，直接的尘埃气候反馈增加了大约一个数量级。这表明它可以在塑造北非，萨赫勒地区，地中海地区，中东和中亚的未来气候中发挥重要作用。