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Relationship between AOD and synoptic circulation over the Eastern Mediterranean: A comparison between subjective and objective classifications
Atmospheric Environment ( IF 5 ) Pub Date : 2018-03-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.01.016
Shalev Bodenheimer , Ronit Nirel , Itamar M. Lensky , Uri Dayan

Abstract The Eastern Mediterranean (EM) Basin is strongly affected by dust originating from two of the largest world sources: The Sahara Desert and the Arabian Peninsula. Climatologically, the distribution pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD), as proxy to particulate matter (PM), is known to be correlated with synoptic circulation. The climatological relationship between circulation type classifications (CTCs) and AOD levels over the EM Basin ("synoptic skill") was examined for the years 2000–2014. We compared the association between subjective (expert-based) and objective (fully automated) classifications and AOD using autoregressive models. After seasonal adjustment, the mean values of R2 for the different methods were similar. However, the distinct spatial pattern of the R2 values suggests that subjective classifications perform better in their area of expertise, specifically in the southeast region of the study area, while, objective CTCs had better synoptic skill over the northern part of the EM. This higher synoptic skill of subjective CTCs stem from their ability to identify distinct circulation types (e.g. Sharav lows and winter lows) that are infrequent but are highly correlated with AOD. Notably, a simple CTC based on seasonality rather than meteorological parameters predicted well AOD levels, especially over the south-eastern part of the domain. Synoptic classifications that are area-oriented are likely better predictors of AOD and possibly other environmental variables.

中文翻译:

AOD 与东地中海天气环流的关系:主客观分类的比较

摘要 东地中海 (EM) 盆地受到来自两个世界最大来源的尘埃的强烈影响:撒哈拉沙漠和阿拉伯半岛。在气候学上,作为颗粒物 (PM) 的代表的气溶胶光学深度 (AOD) 的分布模式已知与天气环流相关。检查了 2000-2014 年间环流类型分类 (CTC) 与 EM 盆地的 AOD 水平(“天气技能”)之间的气候关系。我们使用自回归模型比较了主观(基于专家)和客观(全自动)分类与 AOD 之间的关联。经季节性调整后,不同方法的 R2 平均值相似。然而,R2 值的独特空间模式表明主观分类在其专业领域表现更好,特别是在研究区的东南地区,而客观 CTC 在 EM 北部具有更好的天气技能。主观 CTC 的这种更高的天气技能源于它们识别不常见但与 AOD 高度相关的不同循环类型(例如 Sharav 低点和冬季低点)的能力。值得注意的是,基于季节性而非气象参数的简单 CTC 预测了 AOD 水平,尤其是在该域的东南部。面向区域的天气分类可能更好地预测 AOD 和可能的其他环境变量。客观 CTC 在 EM 北部具有更好的天气技能。主观 CTC 的这种更高的天气技能源于它们识别不常见但与 AOD 高度相关的不同循环类型(例如 Sharav 低点和冬季低点)的能力。值得注意的是,基于季节性而非气象参数的简单 CTC 预测了 AOD 水平,尤其是在该域的东南部。面向区域的天气分类可能更好地预测 AOD 和可能的其他环境变量。客观 CTC 在 EM 北部具有更好的天气技能。主观 CTC 的这种更高的天气技能源于它们识别不常见但与 AOD 高度相关的不同循环类型(例如 Sharav 低点和冬季低点)的能力。值得注意的是,基于季节性而非气象参数的简单 CTC 预测了 AOD 水平,尤其是在该域的东南部。面向区域的天气分类可能更好地预测 AOD 和可能的其他环境变量。基于季节性而非气象参数的简单 CTC 预测了 AOD 水平,尤其是在该域的东南部。面向区域的天气分类可能更好地预测 AOD 和可能的其他环境变量。基于季节性而非气象参数的简单 CTC 预测了 AOD 水平,尤其是在该域的东南部。面向区域的天气分类可能更好地预测 AOD 和可能的其他环境变量。
更新日期:2018-03-01
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