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Elevated increases in human-perceived temperature under climate warming
Nature Climate Change ( IF 30.7 ) Pub Date : 2018-01-01 , DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0036-2
Jianfeng Li , Yongqin David Chen , Thian Yew Gan , Ngar-Cheung Lau

Changes in air temperature (AT), humidity and wind speed (Wind) affect apparent temperature (AP), the human-perceived equivalent temperature1,2,3. Here we show that under climate warming, both reanalysis data sets and Global Climate Model simulations indicate that AP has increased faster than AT over land. The faster increase in AP has been especially significant over low latitudes and is expected to continue in the future. The global land average AP increased at 0.04 °C per decade faster than AT before 2005. This trend is projected to increase to 0.06 °C (0.03–0.09 °C; minimum and maximum of the ensemble members) per decade and 0.17 °C (0.12–0.25 °C) per decade under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5, respectively, and reduce to 0.02 °C (0–0.03 °C) per decade under RCP2.6 over 2006–2100. The higher increment in AP in summer daytime is more remarkable than in winter night-time and is most prominent over low latitudes. The summertime increases in AT-based thermal discomfort are projected to balance the wintertime decreases in AT-based discomfort over low and middle latitudes, while the summertime increases in AP-based thermal discomfort are expected to outpace the wintertime decreases in AP-based thermal discomfort. Effective climate change mitigation efforts to achieve RCP2.6 can considerably alleviate the faster increase in AP.



中文翻译:

气候变暖下人类感知温度的升高

气温(AT),湿度和风速(Wind)的变化会影响视在温度(AP),即人类可感知的等效温度1,2,3。在这里,我们表明,在气候变暖的情况下,再分析数据集和全球气候模型模拟均表明,陆地上AP的增长速度比AT快。在低纬度地区,AP的快速增长尤为重要,并且有望在未来继续保持增长。全球土地平均AP的增加速度为每十年0.04°C,比2005年之前的AT快。这一趋势预计将增加到每十年0.06°C(0.03-0.09°C;集合成员的最小和最大)和0.17°C(在代表性浓度途径4.5情景(RCP4.5)和RCP8.5下,每十年0.12–0.25°C),在2006–2100年期间,在RCP2.6下,每十年减少0.02°C(0–0.03°C) 。夏季白天AP的较高增量比冬季夜间更为显着,并且在低纬度地区最为突出。预计夏季基于AT的热不适的增加将平衡低纬度和中纬度地区基于AT的冬季不适的减少,而基于AP的热不适的夏季增加预计将超过基于AP的热不适的冬季减少。为达到RCP2.6而进行的有效的缓解气候变化努力可大大缓解AP的快速增长。

更新日期:2018-01-01
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