The long-term application of road salts has led to a rise in surface water chloride (Cl^–) concentrations. While models have been used to assess the potential future impacts of continued deicing practices, prior approaches have not incorporated changes in climate that are projected to impact hydrogeology in the 21st century. We use an INtegrated CAtchment (INCA) model to simulate Cl^– concentrations in the Tioughnioga River watershed. The model was run over a baseline period (1961–1990) and climate simulations from a range of GCMs run over three 30-year intervals (2010–2039; 2040–2069; 2070–2099). Model projections suggest that Cl^– concentrations in the two river branches will continue to rise for several decades, before beginning to decline around 2040–2069, with all GCM scenarios indicating reductions in snowfall and associated salt applications over the 21st century. The delay in stream response is most likely attributed to climate change and continued contribution of Cl^– from aquifers. By 2100, surface water Cl^– concentrations will decrease to below 1960s values. Catchments dominated by urban lands will experience a decrease in average surface water Cl^–, although moderate compared to more rural catchments.

中文翻译：

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气候和人为因素对纽约州溪流含盐量的长期影响：INCA模拟提供谨慎的乐观态度

路盐的长期应用已导致地表水氯化物（CL上升^- ）的浓度。尽管已使用模型来评估持续除冰做法对未来的潜在影响，但先前的方法并未考虑到预计会在21世纪影响水文地质的气候变化。我们使用的集水区综合（INCA）模型来模拟氯^-浓度在Tioughnioga流域。该模型在基线期（1961–1990）内运行，一系列GCM的气候模拟在三个30年间隔内（2010–2039; 2040–2069; 2070–2099）运行。模型预测表明，Cl ^–在2040年至2069年左右，这两个河流分支中的浓度将持续上升几十年，然后才开始下降，所有GCM情景都表明21世纪降雪量和相关盐分的减少。在响应流中的延迟很可能归因于气候变化和Cl的持续贡献^-从含水层。到2100年，地表水的Cl ^–浓度将降至1960s以下。城镇土地为主的流域将经历平均地表水氯的下降^-虽然温和相比，更多的农村集水区。