Abstract This article examines impacts of infrastructure development and climate variability on economic outcomes for the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia. It aims to identify the most economically productive mix of expanded reservoir storage for economic benefit sharing to occur, in which economic welfare of all riparians is improved. Policies examined include four combinations of storage infrastructure for each of two climate futures. An empirical optimization model is developed and applied to identify opportunities for improving the welfare of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. The analysis 1) characterizes politically constrained and economically optimized water-use patterns for these combinations of expanded reservoir storage capacity, 2) describes Pareto-Improving packages of expanded storage capacity that could raise economic welfare for all four riparians, and accounts for impacts for each of two climate scenarios. Results indicate that a combination of targeted water storage infrastructure and efficient water allocation could produce outcomes for which the discounted net present value of benefits are favorable for each riparian. Results identify a framework to provide economic motivation for all riparians to cooperate through development of water storage infrastructure. Our findings illustrate the principle that development of water infrastructure can expand the negotiation space by which all communities can gain economic benefits in the face of limited water supply. Still, despite our optimistic findings, patient and deliberate negotiation will be required to transform potential improvements into actual gains.

中文翻译：

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管理水-能源-粮食关系：中亚的机遇

摘要 本文研究了基础设施发展和气候变化对中亚阿姆河盆地经济成果的影响。它旨在确定扩大水库储存的最具经济生产力的组合，以实现经济利益共享，从而提高所有沿岸地区的经济福利。所审查的政策包括针对两种气候未来中的每一种的四种存储基础设施组合。开发并应用经验优化模型来确定改善塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、阿富汗和土库曼斯坦福利的机会。分析 1) 描述了这些扩大水库蓄水能力组合的政治约束和经济优化用水模式，2) 描述了可提高所有四个河岸经济福利的扩展存储容量的帕累托改进包，并说明了对两种气候情景中每一种的影响。结果表明，有针对性的储水基础设施和有效的水资源分配相结合，可以产生收益的贴现净现值对每个河岸有利的结果。结果确定了一个框架，为所有沿岸国通过开发储水基础设施进行合作提供经济动力。我们的研究结果表明，发展水利基础设施可以扩大谈判空间，使所有社区在面临有限的供水时都能获得经济利益。尽管如此，尽管我们有乐观的发现，