Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a salient threat to many animal taxa, causing local and global extinctions, altering communities and ecosystem function. The EID chytridiomycosis is a prominent driver of amphibian declines, which is caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). To guide conservation policy, we developed a predictive decision‐analytic model that combines empirical knowledge of host‐pathogen metapopulation dynamics with expert judgment regarding effects of management actions, to select from potential conservation strategies. We apply our approach to a boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) and Bd system, identifying optimal strategies that balance tradeoffs in maximizing toad population persistence and landscape‐level distribution, while considering costs. The most robust strategy is expected to reduce the decline of toad breeding sites from 53% to 21% over 50 years. Our findings are incorporated into management policy to guide conservation planning. Our online modeling application provides a template for managers of other systems challenged by EIDs.

中文翻译：

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确定物种保护策略以减少与疾病相关的衰落

新兴传染病（EIDs）是对许多动物类群的显着威胁，导致局部和全球灭绝，改变了社区和生态系统的功能。EID壶菌病是两栖动物数量下降的主要驱动力，这是由真菌病原体树毛小球藻（Btrachochychy dendrobatidis，Bd）引起的。为了指导保护政策，我们开发了一种预测决策分析模型，该模型将宿主病原体代谢动力学的经验知识与有关管理措施效果的专家判断相结合，以从潜在的保护策略中进行选择。我们应用我们的方法到北方蟾蜍（Anaxyrus北风北风）和Bd系统，在考虑成本的同时，确定在权衡取舍最大化蟾蜍种群持久性和景观水平分布的最佳策略。预计最有效的策略是在50年内将蟾蜍繁殖地点的数量从53％减少到21％。我们的发现被纳入管理政策以指导保护计划。我们的在线建模应用程序为受EID挑战的其他系统的管理人员提供了模板。