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Solar photovoltaics demand for the global energy transition in the power sector
Progress in Photovoltaics ( IF 6.7 ) Pub Date : 2017-11-02 , DOI: 10.1002/pip.2950
Christian Breyer 1 , Dmitrii Bogdanov 1 , Arman Aghahosseini 1 , Ashish Gulagi 1 , Michael Child 1 , Ayobami Solomon Oyewo 1 , Javier Farfan 1 , Kristina Sadovskaia 1 , Pasi Vainikka 2
Affiliation  

The power sector is faced with strict requirements in reducing harmful emissions and substantially increasing the level of sustainability. Renewable energy (RE) in general and solar photovoltaic (PV) in particular can offer societally beneficial solutions. The LUT energy system transition model is used to simulate a cost‐optimised transition pathway towards 100% RE in the power sector by 2050. The model is based on hourly resolution for an entire year, the world structured in 145 regions, high spatial resolution of the input RE resource data, and transition steps of 5‐year periods. The global average solar PV electricity generation contribution is found to be about 69% in 2050, the highest ever reported. Detailed energy transition results are presented for representative countries in the world, namely, Poland, Britain and Ireland, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. The global average energy system levelised cost of electricity gradually declines from 70 €/MWh in 2015 to 52 €/MWh in 2050 throughout the transition period, while deep decarbonisation of more than 95% around 2040, referenced to 2015, would be possible. The targets of the Paris Agreement can be well achieved in the power sector, while increasing societal welfare, given strong policy leadership.

中文翻译:

太阳能光伏对电力行业全球能源转型的需求

电力部门在减少有害排放和大幅提高可持续性方面面临严格的要求。一般而言,可再生能源(RE)尤其是太阳能光伏(PV)可以提供有益于社会的解决方案。LUT能源系统过渡模型用于模拟到2050年电力行业朝着100%可再生能源的成本优化过渡路径。该模型基于全年的小时分辨率,全球分布在145个地区,空间分辨率高。输入可再生能源资源数据,以及5年周期的过渡步骤。据发现,2050年全球太阳能光伏发电的平均贡献约为69%,是有史以来最高的。针对世界上代表性的国家(即波兰,英国和爱尔兰,土耳其,沙特阿拉伯,巴西,埃塞俄比亚和印度尼西亚。在过渡期间,全球平均能源系统平均化的电力成本从2015年的70欧元/兆瓦时逐渐下降到2050年的52欧元/兆瓦时,而以2015年为基准,到2040年左右有可能实现95%以上的深度脱碳。在强有力的政策领导下,在提高社会福利的同时,电力部门可以很好地实现《巴黎协定》的目标。
更新日期:2017-11-02
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