Understanding uncertainties and risks can be considered to be the main motivation behind environmental scenario studies to assess potential economic, environmental, social or technical developments and their expected consequences for society and environment. The scenario study presented in this paper was designed to contribute to the question of how natural capital and ecosystem services may evolve in Europe under different socio-environmental conditions. The study was conducted as part of OpenNESS, an on-going EU FP7 research project. We present the iterative participatory scenario process, the storylines and drivers, examples for regional applications, as well as initial feedback from stakeholders.

In a participatory iterative approach four scenarios were developed for the period to 2050, involving regional and EU-level users and stakeholders. Subsequently, scenarios were successfully contextualised and applied in regional place-based studies under widely differing socio-environmental conditions. Regional teams used different approaches to adapt storylines and drivers to the regional contexts. In an internal evaluation process among regional stakeholders some participants expressed concerns about the scenario method. Suggestions are made how to overcome these limitations. However, most participants approved the scenario method, especially in terms of provoking discussions, and confirmed the usefulness and applicability of the approach.

理解不确定性和风险可以被认为是环境情景研究背后的主要动机，以评估潜在的经济，环境，社会或技术发展及其对社会和环境的预期后果。本文提出的情景研究旨在解决欧洲在不同的社会环境条件下自然资本和生态系统服务如何演变的问题。这项研究是作为OpenNESS（正在进行的欧盟FP7研究项目）的一部分进行的。我们介绍了迭代式参与情景过程，故事情节和驱动因素，区域应用的示例以及利益相关者的初步反馈。

通过参与式迭代方法，开发了四种情景，直至2050年，涉及区域和欧盟一级的用户和利益相关者。随后，在不同的社会环境条件下，成功地将情境进行了情境化，并应用于区域基于地点的研究中。区域团队使用不同的方法来使故事情节和驱动因素适应区域环境。在区域利益相关者的内部评估过程中，一些参与者表达了对情景方法的担忧。提出了如何克服这些限制的建议。但是，大多数参与者（尤其是在引起讨论方面）批准了情景方法，并确认了该方法的有用性和适用性。