Environmental Research ( IF 8.3 ) Pub Date : 2017-11-03 , DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2017.10.037 Chongfu Huang , Yundong Huang
An integrated risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident caused by multiple hazards. An integrated probability risk is the expected value of disaster. Due to the difficulty of assessing an integrated probability risk with a small sample, weighting methods and copulas are employed to avoid this obstacle. To resolve the problem, in this paper, we develop the information diffusion technique to construct a joint probability distribution and a vulnerability surface. Then, an integrated risk can be directly assessed by using a small sample. A case of an integrated risk caused by flood and earthquake is given to show how the suggested technique is used to assess the integrated risk of annual property loss.
中文翻译:
一种评估综合危害风险的信息传播技术
综合风险是将来与多种危害引起的某些不良事件相关的场景。综合概率风险是灾难的预期价值。由于用小样本难以评估综合概率风险,因此采用加权方法和copulas来避免这种障碍。为了解决这个问题,在本文中,我们开发了信息扩散技术来构造联合概率分布和脆弱性表面。然后,可以通过使用少量样本直接评估综合风险。以洪水和地震造成的综合风险为例,说明如何使用建议的技术评估年度财产损失的综合风险。