Predicted changes in temperature and other weather events may damage the electricity grid and cause power outages. Understanding the costs of power outages and how these costs change over time with global warming can inform outage-mitigation-investment decisions. Here we show that across 19 EU nations the value of uninterrupted electricity supply is strongly related to local temperatures, and will increase as the climate warms. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of data from a choice experiment and respondent-specific temperature measures reveals estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid an hour of power outage between €0.32 and €1.86 per household. WTP varies on the basis of season and is heterogeneous between European nations. Winter outages currently cause larger per household welfare losses than summer outages per hour of outage. However, this dynamic will begin to shift under plausible future climates, with summer outages becoming substantially more costly and winter outages becoming slightly less costly on a per-household, per-hour basis.

预计的温度变化和其他天气事件可能会损坏电网并导致断电。了解停电成本以及随着全球变暖这些成本随时间的变化如何，可以为停电缓解投资决策提供依据。在这里，我们表明，在19个欧盟国家中，不间断电力供应的价值与当地温度密切相关，并且会随着气候变暖而增加。来自选择实验的数据的贝叶斯分层建模和针对特定受访者的温度测量结果揭示了为避免每户一个小时的停电在0.32欧元至1.86欧元之间而愿意支付的费用（WTP）。WTP随季节而变化，并且在欧洲国家之间是不同的。当前，冬季中断造成的每户家庭损失比每小时中断的夏季中断更大。然而，