Halting global biodiversity loss is central to the Convention on Biological Diversity and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, but success to date has been very limited. A critical determinant of success in achieving these goals is the financing that is committed to maintaining biodiversity; however, financing decisions are hindered by considerable uncertainty over the likely impact of any conservation investment. For greater effectiveness, we need an evidence-based model that shows how conservation spending quantitatively reduces the rate of biodiversity loss. Here we demonstrate such a model, and empirically quantify how conservation investment between 1996 and 2008 reduced biodiversity loss in 109 countries (signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity and Sustainable Development Goals), by a median average of 29% per country. We also show that biodiversity changes in signatory countries can be predicted with high accuracy, using a dual model that balances the effects of conservation investment against those of economic, agricultural and population growth (human development pressures). Decision-makers can use this model to forecast the improvement that any proposed biodiversity budget would achieve under various scenarios of human development pressure, and then compare these forecasts to any chosen policy target. We find that the impact of spending decreases as human development pressures grow, which implies that funding may need to increase over time. The model offers a flexible tool for balancing the Sustainable Development Goals of human development and maintaining biodiversity, by predicting the dynamic changes in conservation finance that will be needed as human development proceeds.

中文翻译：

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通过保护支出预测的全球生物多样性减少量的减少

遏制全球生物多样性的丧失是《生物多样性公约》和《联合国可持续发展目标》的核心，但迄今为止取得的成功非常有限。成功实现这些目标的关键因素是致力于维持生物多样性的资金；然而，由于任何保护性投资可能产生的影响，存在很大的不确定性，这阻碍了筹资决策。为了提高有效性，我们需要一个基于证据的模型，该模型可以显示保护支出如何从数量上减少生物多样性的丧失速度。在这里，我们演示了这样一个模型，并从经验上量化了1996年至2008年之间的保护投资如何减少109个国家（《生物多样性公约》和《可持续发展目标》的签署国）的生物多样性丧失，使每个国家的平均中位数减少了29％。我们还表明，使用双重模型可以高精度地预测签署国的生物多样性变化，该模型可以使保护性投资的影响与经济，农业和人口增长的影响（人类发展压力）保持平衡。决策者可以使用此模型来预测任何拟议的生物多样性预算在人类发展压力的各种情况下将实现的改进，然后将这些预测与任何选定的政策目标进行比较。我们发现，支出的影响随着人类发展压力的增加而减小，这意味着资金可能需要随着时间的推移而增加。该模型通过预测随着人类发展而需要的自然保护资金的动态变化，为平衡人类发展的可持续发展目标和维持生物多样性提供了灵活的工具。