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Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea
Nature Climate Change ( IF 30.7 ) Pub Date : 2017-11-13 , DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6
Hiroyuki Murakami,Gabriel A. Vecchi,Seth Underwood

In 2014 and 2015, post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS)—defined by the WMO as tropical storms with lifetime maximum winds greater than 46 m s1—were first observed over the Arabian Sea (ARB), causing widespread damage. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Here, using a suite of high-resolution global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of ESCSs, we show that anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the probability of late-season ECSCs occurring in the ARB since the preindustrial era. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. Thus, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications.

中文翻译:

阿拉伯海上空极度严重的气旋风暴的频率越来越高

在2014年和2015年,季风后的极端严重气旋风暴(ESCS)–由WMO定义为热带风暴,其终身最大风速大于46 ms 1-首次在阿拉伯海(ARB)上观测到,造成了广泛的破坏。然而,尚不清楚季风后ESCS的这种突然增加在多大程度上与人为变暖,自然变异或随机行为有关。在这里,通过使用一组精确模拟ESCS气候分布的高分辨率全球耦合模型实验,我们表明,自工业化时代以来,人为强迫可能增加了后期ECSC在ARB中发生的可能性。但是,2014年和2015年观测到的后期ESCS的具体时间安排可能是由于随机过程造成的。进一步表明,自然可变性在观察到的ESCS增加中起最小作用。因此,持续的人为强迫将进一步放大ARB中气旋的风险,
更新日期:2017-11-13
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