A systematic method is developed for supply reliability assessment of natural gas pipeline networks. In the developed method, the integration of stochastic processes, graph theory and thermal-hydraulic simulation is performed accounting for uncertainty and complexity. The supply capacity of a pipeline network depends on the unit states and the network structure, both of which change stochastically because of stochastic failures of the units. To describe this, in this work a capacity network stochastic model is developed, based on Markov modeling and graph theory. The model is embedded in an optimization algorithm to compute the capacities of the pipeline network under different scenarios and analyze the consequences of failures of units in the system. Indices of supply reliability and risk are developed with respect to two aspects: global system and individual customers. In the case study, a gas pipeline network is considered and the results are analyzed in detail.

开发了一种系统的方法来评估天然气管道网络的供应可靠性。在开发的方法中，考虑了不确定性和复杂性，将随机过程，图论和热工水力仿真进行了集成。管网的供应能力取决于设备状态和网络结构，这两个状态由于设备的随机故障而随机变化。为了描述这一点，在这项工作中，基于马尔可夫建模和图论建立了一个容量网络随机模型。该模型嵌入优化算法中，以计算不同情况下的管道网络容量，并分析系统中单元故障的后果。供应可靠性和风险指标是针对两个方面制定的：全球系统和个人客户。在案例研究中，考虑了天然气管道网络，并对结果进行了详细分析。