Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States^1,2. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability^{3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11}. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035–2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions¹². Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate–water adaptation strategies. Despite climate–water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate–water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. Climate–water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate–water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.

目前（2015年）需要冷却的发电厂在美国^1,2提供了85％的发电量。这些设施需要大量的水和足够凉爽的温度才能实现最佳运行，预计的气候条件可能会降低其潜在的功率输出并影响可靠性^{3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11}。我们评估了未来气候（2035年至2064年）美国连续1080座热电厂的绩效，以及在19个北美电力可靠性公司（NERC）子区域¹²的集体绩效。。工程与气候，水文和环境法规之间的相互作用的共同考虑揭示了能源系统在特定区域的性能以及对区域能源安全和气候-水适应战略的需求。尽管个别工厂受到了气候-水的限制，但当前的电力供应基础设施仍然可以利用区域电力系统的规模，电网配置和热效率的提高来适应未来的气候。如果没有在更广泛的电力系统环境中对个别工厂施加气候-水影响，旨在支持适应和复原力策略的脆弱性评估就无法衡量区域能源系统的脆弱性。气候对水的影响会降低热电储备裕度，这是衡量系统级可靠性的指标，