Previous studies have often explained fertility differentials between racial groups by aggregate individual characteristics. Emphasizing a spatial perspective, this study argues that the fertility implications of race may depend on the ethnic composition of the local context. This study tested the explanatory power of contextual ethnic composition, measured by diversity and minority share, with the intriguing case of fertility differentials in post-Soviet Kazakhstan. Multilevel Poisson regressions and decomposition techniques were performed on the pooled 1995 and 1999 Kazakhstan Demographic and Health Surveys. Further sensitivity tests were conducted with the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey-Kazakhstan 2010–2011 and 2015 surveys. We found that both diversity and minority share are significant contributors to the majority-minority fertility differential. Specifically, context-level ethnic diversity is associated with lower fertility (−0.22, p < 0.001) for both Russians and Kazakhs, while a higher share of Russians in the local context reduces the differential between the two groups (−0.26, p < 0.05). Sensitivity test using data from the 2010s reproduced the significant effect of the context-level share of Russians on fertility. The findings suggest that minority individuals exhibit lower fertility levels in places where their presence is more suppressed. This study contributes to population geography's recognition of the importance of spatial and contextual processes in shaping fertility outcomes for racial/ethnic minorities by impacting their living environment.

中文翻译：

---

后苏联哈萨克斯坦的民族背景和生育率差异

先前的研究经常通过总体个体特征来解释种族群体之间的生育率差异。这项研究强调空间视角，认为种族对生育率的影响可能取决于当地背景的种族构成。这项研究通过后苏联哈萨克斯坦的生育率差异这一有趣的案例，检验了以多样性和少数民族比例来衡量的背景种族构成的解释力。对 1995 年和 1999 年哈萨克斯坦人口统计和健康调查进行了多级泊松回归和分解技术。通过哈萨克斯坦多指标类集调查 2010-2011 年和 2015 年调查进行了进一步的敏感性测试。我们发现，多样性和少数族裔比例都是造成多数族与少数族裔生育率差异的重要因素。具体来说，背景水平的种族多样性与较低的生育率相关（−0.22，对于俄罗斯人和哈萨克人来说， p  < 0.001），而当地环境中俄罗斯人的比例较高，则减少了两组之间的差异（−0.26，p  < 0.05）。使用 2010 年代数据进行的敏感性测试再现了俄罗斯人的背景水平份额对生育率的显着影响。研究结果表明，少数族裔在其存在受到更压制的地方表现出较低的生育水平。这项研究有助于人口地理学认识到空间和背景过程在通过影响少数民族的生活环境来塑造生育结果方面的重要性。