Assessing the contribution of energy efficiency to climate change mitigation is crucial as global warming continues to persist. This study assesses the impact of energy efficiency on carbon intensity in Saudi Arabia and evaluates its potential contributions to the country's net-zero emissions target. We analyze time-series data for Saudi Arabia from 1971 to 2020 and estimate a quantile regression model. The results show that energy efficiency is critical for mitigating carbon dioxide emissions, indicating the importance of activating this lever to accelerate the decarbonization process. The model is robust to changes in the proxy for energy efficiency, confirming energy efficiency's ability to mitigate environmental degradation in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, energy efficiency has a greater impact on the twenty-fifth to seventy-fifth quantiles of carbon intensity than on the tenth and ninetieth quantiles. These heterogeneous effects across carbon intensity quantiles should be considered when the Saudi government discusses and sets its decarbonization objectives. We further extend the analysis by forecasting carbon intensity through 2060 under a scenario in which energy efficiency improves. The results show that energy efficiency improvements may account for up to one-fifth of Saudi Arabia's decarbonization by 2060. This finding underscores energy efficiency's importance for achieving climate stability and building a better future.

随着全球变暖持续存在，评估能源效率对减缓气候变化的贡献至关重要。本研究评估能源效率对沙特阿拉伯碳强度的影响，并评估其对该国净零排放目标的潜在贡献。我们分析了沙特阿拉伯从 1971 年到 2020 年的时间序列数据，并估计了一个分位数回归模型。结果表明，能源效率对于减少二氧化碳排放至关重要，表明激活这一杠杆以加速脱碳过程的重要性。该模型对能源效率代理的变化具有稳健性，证实了能源效率能够减轻沙特阿拉伯的环境退化。而且，能源效率对碳强度的第 25 至第 75 分位数的影响大于对第 10 和第 90 分位数的影响。当沙特政府讨论和设定其脱碳目标时，应考虑碳强度分位数的这些异质性影响。在能源效率提高的情况下，我们通过预测到 2060 年的碳强度来进一步扩展分析。结果表明，到 2060 年，能源效率的提高可能占沙特阿拉伯脱碳的五分之一。这一发现强调了能源效率对于实现气候稳定和建设更美好未来的重要性。当沙特政府讨论和设定其脱碳目标时，应考虑碳强度分位数的这些异质性影响。在能源效率提高的情况下，我们通过预测到 2060 年的碳强度来进一步扩展分析。结果表明，到 2060 年，能源效率的提高可能占沙特阿拉伯脱碳的五分之一。这一发现强调了能源效率对于实现气候稳定和建设更美好未来的重要性。当沙特政府讨论和设定其脱碳目标时，应考虑碳强度分位数的这些异质性影响。在能源效率提高的情况下，我们通过预测到 2060 年的碳强度来进一步扩展分析。结果表明，到 2060 年，能源效率的提高可能占沙特阿拉伯脱碳的五分之一。这一发现强调了能源效率对于实现气候稳定和建设更美好未来的重要性。