Historical data suggest that when a severe tropical storm or hurricane impacts a community, the vulnerable segment of the population suffers the most severe consequences. With an increased aging population, it is crucial to understand how vulnerability alters evacuation behavior. Emergent variables such as fear of COVID-19 require additional exploration. People afraid of COVID-19 exposure may refuse to evacuate, exposing themselves unnecessarily. Differentiation is critical to evacuation logistics since it is needed to determine what proportion would stay in a local shelter, public or other, rather than evacuating or staying in their home and guide the logistics resource allocation process. This research uses data from a web and phone survey conducted in the Hampton Roads area of U.S. Virginia, with 2,200 valid responses to analyze the influence of social and demographic vulnerability factors and risk perception on evacuation decisions. This research contributes to the existing literature by developing a multinomial order logit model based on vulnerability factors and intended evacuation decisions, including staying at home, looking for a shelter, or leaving the Hampton Roads area. Findings show that race and risk perception are the variables that influence the decision-making process the most. Fear of COVID-19 transmission is also associated with an increased likelihood of leaving homes during evacuation. The variations in findings from previous studies are discussed regarding their implications for logistics emergency managers.

历史数据表明，当强烈的热带风暴或飓风影响社区时，人口中的弱势群体将遭受最严重的后果。随着人口老龄化的加剧，了解脆弱性如何改变疏散行为至关重要。对 COVID-19 的恐惧等紧急变量需要额外探索。害怕接触 COVID-19 的人可能会拒绝撤离，从而不必要地暴露自己。差异化对于疏散后勤至关重要，因为需要确定有多少人会留在当地公共或其他避难所，而不是疏散或留在家中，并指导后勤资源分配过程。这项研究使用的数据来自在美国弗吉尼亚州汉普顿路地区进行的网络和电话调查，其中 2，200 份有效答复，用于分析社会和人口脆弱性因素以及风险认知对疏散决策的影响。这项研究通过开发基于脆弱性因素和预期疏散决策（包括留在家中、寻找避难所或离开汉普顿路地区）的多项式顺序逻辑模型来丰富现有文献。调查结果表明，种族和风险认知是对决策过程影响最大的变量。对 COVID-19 传播的恐惧也与疏散期间离家的可能性增加有关。讨论了先前研究结果的差异，以了解它们对物流应急管理人员的影响。这项研究通过开发基于脆弱性因素和预期疏散决策（包括留在家中、寻找避难所或离开汉普顿路地区）的多项式顺序逻辑模型来丰富现有文献。调查结果表明，种族和风险认知是对决策过程影响最大的变量。对 COVID-19 传播的恐惧也与疏散期间离家的可能性增加有关。讨论了先前研究结果的差异，以了解它们对物流应急管理人员的影响。这项研究通过开发基于脆弱性因素和预期疏散决策（包括留在家中、寻找避难所或离开汉普顿路地区）的多项式顺序逻辑模型来丰富现有文献。调查结果表明，种族和风险认知是对决策过程影响最大的变量。对 COVID-19 传播的恐惧也与疏散期间离家的可能性增加有关。讨论了先前研究结果的差异，以了解它们对物流应急管理人员的影响。调查结果表明，种族和风险认知是对决策过程影响最大的变量。对 COVID-19 传播的恐惧也与疏散期间离家的可能性增加有关。讨论了先前研究结果的差异，以了解它们对物流应急管理人员的影响。调查结果表明，种族和风险认知是对决策过程影响最大的变量。对 COVID-19 传播的恐惧也与疏散期间离家的可能性增加有关。讨论了先前研究结果的差异，以了解它们对物流应急管理人员的影响。